[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181143
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night near the
coast of Colombia through Monday night. Presently a gale is from
11N-12N between 74W-76W, with seas to 12 ft. This gale is
forecast to end on 18/1500 UTC. It is forecast to resume again
on 19/0000 UTC. Thereafter, a low developing near the Bahamas
will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic and allow the
nocturnal gale-winds to diminish. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 03N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N-05N between 15W-23W, and from 02N-07S between 32W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 18/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W to 22N90W to a 1014 mb low over the SW Gulf
of Mexico near 21N94.5W. A stationary front extends SE from the
low to the Bay of Campeche near 19N91W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front. Elsewhere radar imagery shows
scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from 25N-30N
between 93W-100W. Northerly 15-30 kt winds are N of the frontal
system. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds.
In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with broken to
overcast high clouds.

Strong high pressure is present to the northwest and north of the
front. A tight gradient between the high pressure and the front
is supporting strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds
over the far SW Gulf. These winds will diminish to strong winds
on Tue and to moderate winds on Wed. Strong northeast to east
winds will cover almost the entire Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue
night and the far eastern Gulf on Wed as the front begins to
move southeastward as a cold front, exiting the area to over
northwestern Cuba early on Wed. As the weak low pressure tracks
along the front through Tue, winds may possibly approach near
gale force over parts of the southeastern Gulf. New high
pressure will then build southward over the area beginning on
Thu and through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is along the coast of Colombia. See above. The remainder
of the Caribbean has 10-30 kt tradewinds with weakest winds over
the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, Guatemala, E Nicaragua, Costa Rica,
Panama, and N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the
W Caribbean with axis along 74W. Very strong subsidence is over
the entire Caribbean and Central America suppressing convection.

High pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda near 29N54W
will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the
central Caribbean Sea through early Wed, before the high moves
eastward and wind speeds diminish for the remainder of the week.
Trade winds are pulsing to minimal gale-force along the coast of
Colombia. These winds diminish to just below gale later this
morning and pulse back up to gale force tonight into early on
Tue.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder
of the area through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30N74W. A cold front
extends SW to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is over the
central Atlantic near 29N54W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the
E Atlantic near 29N39W. A surface trough extends S from this low
to 23N41W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of the trough.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near
30N38W enhancing showers.

The Atlantic cold front will move slowly southeastward reaching
from near 31N65W to the Straits of Florida on Tue morning, from
near 27N65W to northwest Cuba by early on Tue night, then from
near 26N65W to central Cuba on Wed and begin to weaken as it
reaches from near 25N65W to east- central Cuba on Thu and become
stationary through Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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