[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night near the
coast of Colombia through Monday night. Presently a gale is from
11N-12N between 74W-76W, with seas to 12 ft. This gale is forecast
to end on 18/1500 UTC. It is forecast to resume again on 19/0000
UTC. Thereafter, a low developing near the Bahamas will weaken
the ridge over the western Atlantic and allow the nocturnal gale-
winds to diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N-05N between 12W-17W, and from 01N-06S between 30W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 18/0300 UTC, a 1016 mb low is centered near S Florida at
26N80W. A cold front extends to the Straits of Florida near
24N81W to 23N86W. A stationary front continues to a 1014 mb low
over the central Gulf of Mexico near 22N92W. A stationary front
extends S from the low to the Bay of Campeche near 19N91W.
Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida from 23N-24N
between 81W-83W. Northerly 15-30 kt winds are N of the frontal
system. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds. In
the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with broken to
overcast high clouds.

Strong high pressure over Texas and eastern Mexico will support
strong to near gale-force NW to N winds S of 26N and W of 94W
through early Monday evening, then the winds in this area will
slowly diminish through Tue night. Strong NE to E winds will cover
almost the entire Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night as the front
sinks slowly S to exit the Gulf by Wed evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is along the coast of Colombia. See above. The remainder
of the Caribbean has 10-30 kt tradewinds with weakest winds over
the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama, and N
Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean
with axis along 74W. Very strong subsidence is over the entire
Caribbean and Central America suppressing convection.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic near 29N55W will
support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central
Caribbean Sea through early Wednesday before the high moves E and
wind speeds diminish for the remainder of the week. Trade winds
will pulse to minimal gale-force along the coast of Colombia
tonight and Monday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
continue across the remainder of the area through the middle of
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 31N73W. A cold front
extends SW to a 1016 mb low just off the coast of S Florida near
26N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1022 mb
high is over the central Atlantic near 29N55W. A 1016 mb low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 31N41W. A surface trough extends
S from this low to 23N42W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E
of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered near 31N39W enhancing showers.

The central Atlantic High will continue heading ESE and weaken
through mid week. The W Atlantic frontal system will move slowly
SE Mon and reach from near 31N65W to the Straits of Florida Tue,
from near 26N65W to central Cuba on Wed, then weaken as it reaches
from near 25N65W to east central Cuba on Thu. Strong N winds will
cover the western half of the basin Mon night through Tue. Winds
will veer to NE and become strong across the basin N of 24N on
Wed, before shifting to the E of 70W Wed night and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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