[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from central Florida
to 24N92W to 18N93W. Gale force winds are occurring in the SW
Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 21N and west of 95W. Seas of 10-15
ft are expected through early this morning over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, mainly south of 22N and west of the front. The gales will
continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz until 1800 UTC today. Strong
to locally near gale force winds are then expected to continue W
of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight and Sun. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale force winds are expected at night near the coast of
Colombia, beginning tonight and also again on Sunday night. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near
07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N28W to
00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is present from 06N-02S between 06W-
15W. Scattered moderate convection is within 175 nm of the ITCZ
between 33W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from central
Florida to 24N92W to 18N93W. Numerous moderate rain and isolated
thunderstorms are observed across the northern and western Gulf of
Mexico NW of the front. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
moving along the South Texas coast and northeast Mexico. A 16/1528
ASCAT pass shows gale N to NE winds within 140 nm of the front
continue west of 95W and strong winds cover the remainder of the
NW Gulf across the Texas and Louisiana coastline. Strong mid-upper
level ridging continues to drift eastward. Because of this, and a
surface trough to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, isolated
showers continue over the eastern portions of the SW Gulf. Showers
continue to move westward across the western tip of Cuba from
23N-22N between 82W-83W. Ahead of the cold front, isolated showers
are moving southward from central to south Florida.

The gradient between the cold front and high pressure building
southward across Texas and eastern Mexico will support strong to
minimal gale force northwest to north winds behind the front into
early Sat afternoon as the cold front reaches from the W coast of
Florida near 27N82.5W to 24N91W, and stationary to 18.5N92W. The
cold front will reach from SW Florida by late tonight and to
23N89W and to 22N93W where it will continue as stationary to
18.5N93W. The cold front will reach the Straits of Florida from
late Sunday into Monday while the stationary front weakens. The
cold front will become stationary again on Tuesday, along the NW
coast of Cuba and the lower Straits of Florida, southwestward to
along or just offshore the northern and northwest coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula through early on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong mid-level ridging is causing subsidence cover the western
Caribbean. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level trough axis stretches
through the eastern Caribbean. Typical isolated showers are over
portions of the NE and W Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass from
16/1350 shows strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
south of 16N. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except for moderate
in the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are also occurring in the Gulf
of Venezuela.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in much of the central Caribbean Sea through
Wednesday. These winds will decrease in coverage from Tuesday
until Wednesday night. NE to E winds will pulse to minimal gale-
force at night, from tonight until Monday night. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area
through the middle part of the next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues moving eastward in the W Atlantic,
entering the forecast area at 31N77W to Cocoa Beach FL. Isolated
showers are moving over central and south Florida with showers
and isolated thunderstorms off the east coast of Florida near a
pre-frontal trough. Light to moderate showers are moving off the
Georgia coast N of the cold front. A surface ridge stretches
across the western Atlantic waters with a 1024 mb surface high
anchoring the ridge near 33N58W. To the east of this ridge, a cold
front enters the area at 31N38W to 25N45W to 21N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the front between 41W-51W. Surface
ridging also covers the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1025mb
surface high centered near 35N24W.

High pressure across the western Atlantic Ocean will shift ESE
and weaken through Sunday night. A weak cold front is offshore
the coasts of Florida and Georgia. This front will reach from near
31N76W to Stuart, Florida by this afternoon and from 31N71W to
near 29N75W and stationary to southern Florida on Sunday morning.
The front eventually will be cold along 31N67W to 30N70W, becoming
stationary to near 30N75W, across the NW Bahamas to 25N80W along
the Florida coast to NW Cuba early Sunday night. It is possible
that a low pressure center may develop along the front, from
Tuesday through Wednesday and track northeastward. The wind speeds
and sea heights will increase across much of the central and
western waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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