[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are expected to begin now, around 15/0600 UTC
along the coast of Colombia, then end around sunrise this morning.
Corresponding sea heights will range between 10 and 11 feet.
Winds along the coast of Colombia are forecast to then remain
below gale force through Saturday as ridging over the western Atlc
is weakened by low pres moving E across the United States. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N91W to 23N98W.
Gale force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near
Tampico and Veracruz by late this afternoon south of 24N and west
of 95W, lasting into Saturday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 feet are
expected W of the front. Strong to near gale force winds are then
expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico Sat
night and Sun as a sharp ridge remains in place along the eastern
slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01S26W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present within 240 nm N and 390 nm S of the
ITCZ between 20W-29W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from
05S-01N between 30W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N91W to 23N98W.
Scattered showers are near and NW of the front. Fresh N to NE
winds are found NW of the front while moderate to fresh SE winds
are occurring south of the front. Strong subsidence and deep-
layer ridging cover the southern and southeastern Gulf. Mostly
fair weather remains in place SE of the front.

The cold front over the NW Gulf will reach from Panama City
Florida to the central Gulf by Fri afternoon, where it will
transition to a stationary front continuing SW to the Bay of
Campeche. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front,
increasing to gale force late Fri afternoon or early evening near
Veracruz, Mexico and possibly in Tampico adjacent waters. The
cold front will reach the Straits of Florida by Sun morning,
leaving the remnants of the stationary front over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades are over the central Caribbean S of 17N
between 67W-78W, with moderate winds in the NE Caribbean and
between 79W-84W. The exceptions are that strong to near gales
prevail near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras S
of 19N and W of 85W. Gales are forecast near the coast of Colombia
now through sunrise this morning. See section above for details.
Shower coverage over the basin remains isolated as mid to upper-
level ridging along 85W maintains subsident flow over the
Caribbean Sea and Central America. High pressure N of the area
will only weaken slightly, resulting in near gales near the coast
of Colombia each night for the next several days. Fresh to strong
winds are also expected to pulse over the Gulf of Venezuela and
the Gulf of Honduras early this morning and tonight, then diminish
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high near 34N69W extends a ridge over the forecast
waters in the western Atlantic. On the southern periphery of the
ridge, isolated showers are near the Florida Keys and Florida
Straits due to slightly enhanced moisture in the area. A cold
front extends SW from the central Atlantic near 32N47W to 24N54W
to 22N63W, then continues as a stationary front to 21N70W. A
surface trough curves ahead of the front from 27N49W to 17N56W.
Upper-level troughing covers the area of the Atlantic and
Caribbean between 50W-70W. Divergent upper-level winds to the E
of this trough are triggering scattered moderate convection over
the central Atlantic within a box bounded by 19N51W 24N54W 32N46W
32N40W 19N49W 19N51W. Ridging east of 40W is leading to fair
weather in the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1034 mb high near
41N17W. The pressure gradient south of the high supports fresh
winds from 10N-25N between 25W-40W.

The weakening stationary front from 22N63W to 21N70W will
dissipate today. High pressure building in over the subtropical
western Atlantic Saturday will shift a little eastward toward the
central Atlantic Sunday as the next cold front moves into the
region. This cold front will move off the SE United States Fri
night, and will reach from Bermuda to central Florida by early
Sun, and from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas by Tue evening.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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