[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are expected to begin tonight at 15/0300 UTC
along the coast of Colombia. It is forecast to end by 15/1200 UTC.
Corresponding sea heights will range between 8 to 11 feet. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds
are forecast to develop over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz
by 16/0000 UTC south of 24N west of front. Seas of 10 to 13 feet
are expected. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near
06N12W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is present from
03N-03S between 22W-30W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is 00N-13S between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the northwest Gulf of Mexico
from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to Deep South Texas near 26N98W.
Scattered showers are within 75 nm northwest of front. Light fog
persists elsewhere over the north Gulf of Mexico north of 26N and
east of front. 10-15 kt northerly winds are north of front and
15-20 kt southerly winds are south of front. In the upper levels,
a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 84W. Strong subsidence
covers the entire Gulf. Fair weather is primarily south of the
front.

The cold front will reach from Mobile Bay Alabama to Tampico
Mexico by early Fri, and from Tampa Bay Florida to Coatzacoalcos
Mexico in the Bay of Campeche by early Sat. Winds to gale force
will follow the front from Tampico to Veracruz from late Fri
through early Sat. Winds and seas will diminish as the front
gradually stalls and weakens from the Straits of Florida to the
northern Yucatan peninsula through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the
Leeward Islands. Passing showers are moving W with the tradewinds
mainly N of Puerto Rico,and along the coasts of Honduras and
Nicaragua. In the upper levels, strong subsidence covers the
Caribbean Sea and Central America suppressing convection.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale
force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to
strong winds are also expected to pulse over the Gulf of
Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate to fresh
trades will continue across the remainder of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N51W to 25N56W to
the south Bahamas near 23N77W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 360 nm E of the front N of 21N. A 1039 mb high is over the
E Atlantic near 41N19W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the surface front.

Over the western Atlantic, a cold front along 22N will stall
through Fri then dissipate. High pressure building in the wake of
the front will shift east of the region ahead of another cold
front moving off the SE United States Fri night. The new front
will reach from Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun, then
drifting southward to 22N into mid week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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