[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A 12/0130 UTC ASCAT pass confirms that NE gale-force winds are
occurring near the coast of N Colombia from 11N to 12.5N between
74W and 76W. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 13 feet.
The gale is forecast to end at 12/1200 UTC. The gale is forecast
to resume at 13/0000 UTC, and end again at 13/1200 UTC. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 07N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 02S30W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 06S-01S between 14W and the coast of South America.
Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 06S-03N between 05W
and the coast of South America, and from 04N-07N between the coast
of Liberia and 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak E-W cold front extends over the northern Gulf of Mexico
from near St. Augustine Florida to near Apalachicola Florida to
Buras Louisiana to Galveston Texas. It then continues as a
stationary front inland to San Antonio Texas, then to 29N104W.
Some showers are located well inland over Texas, but no
significant shower activity is noted over the Gulf of Mexico with
the front. Winds over the northern Gulf are gentle to moderate. A
1023 mb surface high is centered in the E Gulf near 28N85W. The
strongest winds in the basin are found in the SW Gulf, where winds
are fresh to strong. A strong mid-level ridge over the southern
Gulf is leading to subsidence and fair weather for the S Gulf.

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that patchy
dense fog exists near the Florida Gulf Coast between Englewood
Florida and the Choctawhatchee Bay Florida. Dense fog remains
possible in the area until 1800 UTC today. Areas of dense fog are
also being reported along the coast of Texas between Galveston Bay
and the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thu.
Fresh to near gale force SE winds are expected over most of the
western Gulf tonight and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of a cold front that will come off Louisiana and Texas
coasts Thu. The front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to
the Bay of Campeche by late Fri night. Gale force winds are
possible over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale force winds are occurring near the coast of Colombia. See
section above for details. Elsewhere, strong trades cover much of
the central Caribbean, with fresh trades in the E Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras, and moderate winds elsewhere in the NW
Caribbean. Scattered showers are over the E Caribbean N of 16N
between 64W-68W, including near and over Puerto Rico. Similar
showers are near the Windward Islands and Trinidad.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale
force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through
Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue
across the remainder of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 32N71W and continues
to St. Augustine Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along and within 90 nm ahead of the cold front between
70W-79W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 30N between 64W-
70W. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A 1015 mb
low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N46W. An upper-
level low is nearly vertically stacked with this surface low.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between 40W-47W. A
1031 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N18W.

The cold front over the northern waters from 32N71W to N Florida
will push across the waters N of 25N through Wed morning. High
pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu, then prevail
through Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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