[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
738 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds are forecast to begin on 12/0000 UTC along the
coast of N Colombia from 11N to 12.5N between 74W and 76W. The
sea heights will range from 10 feet to 13 feet. The gale is
forecast to end on 12/1200 UTC. The gale is forecast to resume on
13/0000 UTC, and end again on 13/1200 UTC. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Liberia near 06N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to
01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N85W.
5-15 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds
near the high and strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Satellite
imagery and observations indicate dense fog persists within 60 nm
of the coast between Englewood Florida and the Choctawhatchee Bay
Florida. The fog is forecast to remain until 12/1800 UTC.
Scattered moderate convection is inland over N Florida N of 30N
between 81W-86W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf
with axis from Tallahassee Florida to Veracruz Mexico. Broken to
overcast high clouds are over the N Gulf N of 26N. Strong
subsidence and fair weather is over the S Gulf.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through Thu.
Fresh to near gale force SE winds are expected over most of the
western gulf Tue night and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of a cold front that will come off Louisiana and Texas
coasts on Thu. The front will reach from Cross City, Florida to
the Bay of Campeche by late Fri night. Gale force winds will be
possible over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt trades cover much of the basin with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds over the NW Caribbean.
A Gale will start along the coast of Colombia shortly. See above.
Scattered showers are over the E Caribbean E of 68W to include
Puerto Rico. Similar showers are over Hispaniola, Jamaica, central
Honduras, Costa Rica, W Panama, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades
over much of the central Caribbean through Sat night, with gale
force winds expected at night near the coast of Colombia through
Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse during the evenings
over the Windward Passage. Strong winds will affect the Gulf of
Honduras Wed and Thu evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades
will continue across the remainder of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front north of the area is near 31N77W. Scattered showers
are noted 200 nm southeast of the front. A 1025 mb high is over
the W Atlantic near 31N62W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 25N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 25N-29N between 42W-49W. A 1033 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 38N17W.

The cold front will enter the NW waters this evening, and will
traverse the waters N of 25N through Wed morning. High pressure
will build over the region Wed and Thu, then prevail through Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net