[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds will be present in the Caribbean Sea, for
the next 18 hours, near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 13N
between 74W and 76W. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to
15 feet. The wind speeds will slow down during the afternoon
hours on Monday, and then return to gale-force, from Monday
night until Tuesday morning. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the
AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to
the Equator along 27W, to 02S36W and 03S42W at the coast of
Brazil. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
05N southward between 16W and 25W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 10W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf
of Mexico.

An east-to-west oriented surface ridge passes through 29N75W in
the Atlantic Ocean, across N central Florida, into the Gulf of
Mexico near 28N88W, to 25N93W, and toward the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from east Texas, toward the Texas Big
Bend.

High pressure, that is centered N of the Gulf of Mexico, will
shift E into the western Atlantic Ocean by Friday. Low pressure
in interior Mexico will deepen on Tuesday and Wednesday. This
situation will set up strong SE to S return flow across most of
the Gulf of Mexico from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday
night. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay
of Campeche by Friday evening. It is possible that gale-force
winds may affect the coastal waters of Mexico, near Tampico and
Veracruz, on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in much of the central Caribbean Sea through
Friday night. Gale-force winds are expected each night near the
coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
across the remainder of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
to 30N between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
that same area.

A surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near Bermuda, to 29N75W, across N central Florida, into the
Gulf of Mexico beyond 28N88W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N51W to 21N51W to 14N55W.
The trough is supporting a cold front that passes through
32N49W, to 28N50W and 24N53W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is
from 23N northward between 42W and 53W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

High pressure will prevail across the area through Monday. A
cold front, entering the NW waters on Monday, will move across
the waters N of 27N through Tuesday night. High pressure will
develop again in the northern waters from Wednesday through
Thursday night, and then shift eastward on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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