[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds will be slowing down in speed, to less than
gale-force, during the next hour or so. Expect the NE gale-force
winds to return tonight, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W,
near the coast of Colombia. The sea heights will range from 10
feet to 13 feet. The wind speeds will slow down during the
daytime hours on Sunday, and then return to gale-force on Sunday
night. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N18W, 02N21W, and to the Equator along
26W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 26W, to 03S37W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from the
coast of Africa southward between 08W and 11W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06W eastward,
and from 03N southward between 20W and 26W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere to the south of the
line from 07N11W 04N25W, to 04N51W at the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 90W.

A surface ridge extends from central Florida, into the south
central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico.

Surface high pressure will linger in the forecast waters through
Saturday. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday. The front will stall near the northern Gulf of Mexico
shoreline on Monday and Tuesday, and then move N as a warm front
on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Rainshowers are possible from 15N northward from 70W westward.
Rainshowers are possible also, from 15N southward from 79W,
moving toward Central America, in easterly surface wind flow.

A surface trough is in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea,
from the Virgin Islands to 14N66W, toward La Isla de Margarita
of Venezuela. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 12N to 20N
between 63W and 72W.

High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support
fresh to strong trade winds in much of the central Caribbean Sea
until the middle of next week. Gale-force trade winds are
expected each night near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 40N48W. A 1033 mb high
pressure center is near 37N21W, about 220 nm to the east of the
eastern part of the Azores. A stationary front passes through
32N47W to 28N55W, to 24N65W, and to 24N76W near the central
Bahamas. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 30 nm on either side of the line from
30N51W 29N54W 26N57W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes
through 32N47W to 28N54W 24N60W 24N70W. Surface high pressure
will prevail across the area through Monday. A cold front will
enter the NW corner of the area on Monday, and then move across
the waters that are to the N of 27N through Tuesday night. High
pressure will build across the northern waters again on
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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