[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE gale-force winds will be present in the Caribbean Sea, for
the next 12 hours, near the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N
between 74W and 76W. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to
13 feet. The wind speeds will slow down during the daytime hours
on Saturday, and then return to gale-force on Saturday night.
This pattern will repeat itself from Saturday night to Sunday
night. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 04N18W, and to the Equator along 23W. The ITCZ
continues from the Equator along 23W, to 01S33W, and to the
coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N southward between 05W
and 10W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from the line 05N10W 05N20W 03N30W, to 04N at the
coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from the SW corner of the area
beyond Louisiana.

A surface ridge extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 30N74W,
across northern Florida, to 29N86W in the Gulf of Mexico, across
SE Louisiana, into eastern Texas.

Surface high pressure will linger in the forecast waters through
Saturday. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday. The front will stall near the northern Gulf of Mexico
shoreline on Monday and Tuesday, and then return N as a warm
front on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front continues to linger in the area
of SE Cuba/the Windward Passage. Rainshowers are possible from
16N northward, between 70W and 80W, including in Hispaniola,
Jamaica, and SE Cuba, and even from 16N northward from 80W
westward.

A surface/low level trough is in the eastern part of the
Caribbean Sea, from 11N64W toward the Virgin Islands. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the
area that is from 11N to 19N between the eastern Caribbean Sea
islands and 69W.

High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support
fresh to strong trade winds in much of the central Caribbean Sea
until the middle of next week. Gale-force trade winds are
expected each night near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 37N62W. A 1034 mb high
pressure center is near 38N24W, just to the east of the Azores.
A cold front passes through 32N48W to 28N55W. The front
continues as stationary from 28N55W to 22N69W and to SE Cuba.
The front is dissipating stationary from SE Cuba to 19N77W in
the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line that
passes through 32N47W to 29N54W 26N58W 25N62W 24N70W. The entire
frontal boundary will dissipate completely by Saturday evening.
High pressure will build N of the front across the area through
Monday. A cold front will enter the NW corner of the area on
Monday, and then move across the waters N of 27N through Tuesday
night. High pressure will build again in the northern waters on
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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