[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
612 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central
Caribbean enhancing the winds near the coast of Colombia from
11-12N between 74W-76W, where gale-force winds are expected to
develop on 08/0000 UTC, with seas to 11 ft. Winds will diminish
during the daytime hours and will increase again each night
through early next week. Please refer the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the African
coast near 09N13W to 01N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N-06N between 08W-16W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 01N-06S between 33W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high is centered over SW Georgia near 31N85W. 10-15 kt
SW surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is
over the W Bay of Campeche from 23N96W to 19N94W, depicted by a
sharp wind shift. Broken low clouds are also over the W Gulf W of
92W. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the
upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with strong subsidence.

High pressure centered over the southeastern United States will
weaken and shift eastward through Sat. Southerly return flow will
develop and strengthen this weekend. A weak cold front will move
into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sun, and dissipate by Mon as high
pressure takes control of the weather pattern into Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of a stationary front extends from the eastern tip
of Cuba near 20N75W to 17N84W. Scattered showers are over E Cuba.
Winds west of the front are generally 15 kt out of the northeast.
15-30 kt easterly trade winds are over the remainder of the
Caribbean, with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.
Patches of scattered showers are observed over the E Caribbean E
of 70W.

Strong high pressure north of the area will support gale force
nocturnal winds near the coast of Colombia for the next several
nights. Otherwise, benign conditions are expected throughout the
rest of the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 35N75W. A cold front
extends from the central Atlantic near 31N53W to 26N60W to 23N63W.
A stationary front continues to E Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1032 mb high is over the
E Atlantic near 34N30W. Of note in the upper levels, a large
trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N and W of 50W supporting the
surface front.

The high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will shift eastward
through Saturday over the Atlantic. As a result, the southern
portion of the cold front from 29N52W to 24N71W is expected to
stall on Friday and will dissipate by Saturday. The northern
portion of the front, 32N46W to 29N52W, will stall by Friday night
and dissipate by Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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