[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Gale-force northerly winds are noted in scatterometer data over
the southwest Gulf of Mexico south of 21N and west of 94.5W. Seas
are expected to peak to around 12-18 ft in this area. These winds
are forecast to diminish to the strong category on Wed, with
associated seas slowly subsiding. Please refer the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC MIAHSFAT2 or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient will tighten over the south-central
Caribbean by early Friday enhancing the winds south of 12N
between 73W-77W. In this area, gale-force winds are expected to
develop. Winds will diminish during the daytime hours, and pick
up back again overnight. These conditions will repeat through the
weekend. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO header FZNT02 KNHC
MIAHSFAT2 or the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic waters from the
African coast near 05N06W to 02S14W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 75 nm to north and south of the ITCZ
mainly west of 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale
Warning currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters.

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits near 24N80W to
22N86W, then to the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W.
Scattered showers are noted along the front. North of the front,
fresh winds prevail across the majority of the basin.

The front should exit the SE Gulf waters this morning. Strong
high pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front
through Thursday. Gale-force winds should diminish to strong
winds today. Strong northerly winds behind the front will
gradually diminish through tonight. The high pressure over the
area will shift to east of the region by late Fri night, with
fresh to locally strong return flow setting up over much of the
western and central waters. The next cold front is anticipated to
reach the NW Gulf waters this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows scattered low-topped showers moving
westward over the eastern Caribbean N of 15N between 60W-80W.

A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean today and then gradually
dissipate over the area by Thursday. Building high pressure
behind the front near Bermuda will accentuate the pressure
gradient over the Caribbean, enhancing the tradewinds Thu night
through at least Sun night. On those evenings, NE gales are
possible off of the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the
section above for information about the Gale Warning currently in
effect for the south-central Caribbean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from a 998 mb low
near 39N61W to 31N68W to 23N80W. Scattered showers are within 90
nm east of the front. Surface ridging prevails across much of the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
33N39W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N12W to
26N40W.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from near 23N65W
to the Windward Passage on Thu. The front will then weaken and
dissipate by late Fri night as high pressure behind it shifts
eastward through Sat night. Benign weather conditions will
prevail this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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