[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will
significantly tighten over the SW Gulf of Mexico on Tue in the
wake of a cold front that is currently pushing east-southeast
across the Gulf waters. This is forecast to lead to minimal
gale force northwest winds over the section of the SW Gulf of
Mexico outlined as south of 21N and west of 95W beginning around
21Z Tue or shortly afterwards. Seas with these gale force winds
are expected to peak to around 11 or 12 ft. The gale force winds
are forecast to diminish to strong winds on Wed, with associated
seas slowly subsiding. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas
Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
04N17W, where recent scatterometer data indicated the ITCZ begins
and continues to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm north of the ITCZ
between 33W-39W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 22W-27W.
Similar activity is removed to the north of the ITCZ within 30 nm
of a line from 03N26W to 02N35W, and from just south of the
equator at 41W to 03S west to the coast of South America.


GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 04/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from northeast Florida
near 32N79W southwestward to across north-central Florida, and
continues southwest to near Brooksville, Florida and to 26N89W,
to 24N95W and southwestward to inland the coast of Mexico at
Tuxpan. Current satellite imagery defines the leading edge of the
frontal boundary as a narrow line of low clouds (rope cloud type
feature over the open Gulf waters. Isolated showers are possible
with these clouds. A pre-frontal trough is noted out ahead of the
cold front from near Melbourne, Florida to Sarasota and to the far
eastern Gulf at 26N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen within 30 nm of 26N87W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along the remainder of the trough. The
satellite imagery shows broken to overcast low clouds with
embeddedareas of light rain and drizzle behind the front. Some of
surface observations along and just inland the central and
southern Texas coast are reporting reduced visibilities in low
cloud ceilings.

Strong high pressure ushering in a very cold arctic air mass
across the central United States is surging southward behind the
front across the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. The tight
pressure gradient between the high pressure and the front is
bringing strong north to northeast winds across the central and
western Gulf waters. South and southeast of the front, winds are
southerly in the 10-15 kt range.

The cold front is forecast to slowly move across the remainder of
the Gulf exiting the area on Wed. Strong winds and high seas will
follow west of the front, with gale conditions expected near
Veracruz Mexico beginning around 21Z on Tue as described above
under Special features. High pressure in the wake of the front
will remain across the region through the rest of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows patches of low-level moisture moving
westward with the moderate to fresh trade winds present over the
north-central, eastern and northwestern sections of the sea. Scattered
showers are possible with some these clouds. Low-level wind speed
convergence has resulted in broken to scattered low-level clouds
with isolated showers along and near the coasts of Costa Rica and
northern Panama. Isolated showers are possible over sections of
Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted over some sections of Colombia.
Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are over the
south-central Caribbean.

The forecast calls for the fresh to locally strong winds to
continue through Wed. Easterly swell will prevail across tropical
Atlantic waters through Wed before subsiding. A cold front will
enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front will become stationary
from near the Windward passage to eastern Honduras Thu, then
weaken Thu night. Near gale force winds are expected along the
coast of Colombia Tue night and Wed night, then gale force winds
will be possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night and Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has emerged off the southeastern United States coast,
and extends from a 1011 mb low at 32N77W southwestward to inland
Florida near Daytona beach as of 15Z this morning. A pre-frontal
trough is seen within about 90 nm southeast of the front east of
76W and within 60 nm south of the front west of 76W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the cold front east
of 77W, while scattered showers are elsewhere near the front.
Isolated showers are possible along the trough.

A 1028 mb high near 28.5N46W extends a ridge westward across much
of the basin. Another 1028 mb high pressure center is just north
of the area at 33N51W. It is moving to the southeast around 20 kt.

Satellite imagery, in various enhancements, depicts Saharan dust
covering much of the region north of 10N east of 35W.

The forecasts calls for high pressure over the forecast waters
to continue to retreat eastward allowing for the aforementioned
cold front to become stationary from near 23N65W to the Windward
passage Thu, then weaken and dissipate by Fri evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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