[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
527 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

On 05/2100 UTC a Gale is forecast over the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Cold front 25N81W to 21N95W to 18N93W. Gale with NW winds S of
20.5N and W of 95W, with seas to 11 ft. Please refer to the
Atlantic High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
05N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 02N-10S between 31W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 04/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near
31N82.5W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to S of
Tampico Mexico near 21N97W. A squall line is E of the front from
31N80W to 28N85W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
S of the squall line. 25-30 kt N winds are presently N of the
front. Elsewhere, 10-15 kt southerly winds are S of the front and
squall line, with mostly fair weather.

The cold front will continue to slowly cross the Gulf waters and
pass SE of the area Wed. Strong winds and building seas will
follow west of the front, with gale conditions expected over the
waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. High pres ridging will then
build over the Gulf in the wake of the front and prevail through
the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds over the
eastern and central Caribbean E of 80W, to include Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and E Cuba. These showers are being enhanced by upper
level diffluence E of a sharp upper level trough over the NW
Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Central
America from Nicaragua to W Panama.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail across the
south-central Caribbean through Wed, then increase in areal
coverage across the central Caribbean Thu. Easterly swell will
prevail across tropical Atlantic waters through Wed before
subsiding. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed. The front
will stall from the Windward passage to E Honduras Thu, then
weaken Thu night. Near gale force winds are expected along the
coast of Colombia Tue night and Wed night, then gale force winds
will be possible near the coast of Colombia Thu night and Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 28N and
W of 75W due to a squall line. A 1028 mb high near 30N24W extends
a surface ridge W across much of the basin. Saharan dust covers
much of the region north of 10N east of 35W.

High pressure over the forecast waters will retreat E and allow a
cold front to enter the NW waters this morning. The front will
shift E and eventually stall from near 23N65W to the Windward
passage Thu, then weaken and dissipate by Fri evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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