[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia, Africa near 04N08W to
02N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S29W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N
-07S between 32W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging over the SW N Atlc waters extends an axis across
Florida into the eastern half of the basin supporting light to
moderate return flow across the Gulf. A slightly tighter pressure
gradient over the western gulf due to a cold front extending from
SW Louisiana to southern Texas supports moderate to locally fresh
NW winds along portion of the Texas coast. Observations along the
coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and NE Mexico continue to show areas
of patchy to dense fog, which is supported by shallow moisture
advecting from the Caribbean. A line of strong showers and
thunderstorms is across Georgia into the Panhandle of Florida and
the Louisiana coast. With deep layer dry air as indicated by
water vapor imagery, fair conditions prevail elsewhere.

The cold front will gradually move across the Gulf and exit the
area Wed. Strong thunderstorms ahead of the front will make its
way into the northern Gulf tonight. Strong winds and building
seas will follow in the wake of the front, with gale conditions
possible over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue night. High
pressure over the southern United States will shift E toward the
western Atlantic Wed through Thu night and allow winds to subside
and veer from NE to SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture and a middle to upper level trough over the NW
Caribbean continue to support isolated showers across Jamaica and
adjacent waters as well as Nicaragua adjacent waters. Similar
weather conditions are in the SW basin being supported by a 1008
mb low over NW Colombia. The gradient between the low and high
pressure to the north will continue to support fresh to locally
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu
night while strong winds are expected to the lee of Cuba and over
the Windward passage. Otherwise, a cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel Wed, then stall and weaken across the NW Caribbean
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high pressure remains in control across much of the
basin. The high pres over the forecast waters will retreat
eastward tonight. A cold front will move into the NW waters Mon.
The front will shift E, stalling from near 23N65W to the Windward
passage Thu, then dissipating through Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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