[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia, Africa near 04N08W to
03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S30W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is S of 03N W of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging over the SW N Atlc waters extends an axis across
Florida into the eastern half of the basin supporting light to
moderate return flow in that portion of the basin. A slightly
tighter pressure gradient over the western gulf due to a cold
front extending from SW Louisiana to southern Texas supports
moderate to locally fresh return winds over the SW basin. Observations
along the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and NE Mexico continue to
show dense fog, which is supported by shallow moisture advecting
from the Caribbean. With deep layer dry air as indicated by water
vapor imagery, fair conditions prevail elsewhere. The cold front
will gradually move across the Gulf and exit the area Wed. Strong
winds and building seas will follow in the wake of the front, with
gale conditions possible over the waters near Veracruz Mexico Tue
night. High pressure over the southern United States will shift E
toward the western Atlantic Wed through Thu night and allow winds
to subside and veer from NE to SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture and a middle to upper level trough over the NW
Caribbean continue to support isolated showers across Jamaica and
adjacent waters as well as Nicaragua adjacent waters. Similar
weather conditions are in the SW basin being supported by a 1011
mb low over NW Colombia. The gradient between the low and high
pressure to the north will continue to support fresh to locally
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Fri.
Gale force winds are possible near the coast of Colombia Thu
night while strong winds are expected to the lee of Cuba and over
the Windward passage. Otherwise, a cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel Wed, then stall and weaken across the NW Caribbean
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward
ahead of a cold front expected to move off northern Florida Mon.
The front will extend from 31N73W to southern Florida Tue, from
31N66W to western Cuba Wed, then weaken from 25N65W to eastern
Cuba Thu. Strong winds and building seas are expected N of 27N
Wed through Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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