[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 06N10W to
05N15W to 01N21W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04S30W to
the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring within 180 n mi of the ITCZ between 26W and 30W and from
2N to 4N between 14W and 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A line of showers and thunderstorms is propogating eastward
across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Panhandle.
This activity is located well to the east of the surface front and
is primarily associated with a nearby mid- to upper-level
shortwave trough. The surface cold front currently lies from
south-central Louisiana to 27N94W and then becomes stationary to
the coast of northern Mexico near 25N98W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are along the front. A weak 1014 mb low
lies near the coast of southern Mexico around 20N96W, but this
feature is not producing much associated weather.

The front across the Gulf is expected to slowly weaken and should
dissipate on Saturday. The next cold front, this one expected to
be stronger, is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
by Sunday night.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tranquil weather conditions continue across much of the Caribbean
region today supported by abundant dry and stable air in the
middle- and upper-levels of the atmosphere and surface high
pressure ridging extending into the area from the central
Atlantic. There could be some shower activity over the
northwestern Caribbean, where satellite images show moisture
aloft streaming in from the eastern Pacific. Trade winds are fresh
to strong area-wide, with the strongest winds (around 25 kt) near
the northern coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected to prevail in the south-
central Caribbean through the weekend. Winds are expected to
increase slightly over the eastern Caribbean early next week as
high pressure strengthens to the north of the area. Long period
northerly swell will continue to propagate through the tropical
Atlantic waters and the Caribbean Passages for another day or so.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a cold front extends into the area from 32N58W to
30N68W. Scattered showers are likley along the boundary.
Otherwise, high pressure dominates the region supported by a 1032
mb high near 33N29W. This surface high pressure and stable air in
the middle- and upper-levels of the atmosphere are supporting
fair weather across the majority of the region today. The primary
marine hazard is the widespread northwestern swell that is
currently affecting much of the central and eastern Atlantic.

High pressure is expected to continue to dominate through the
weekend, but a cold front should move over the western Atlantic
early next week. The long period swell is expected to slowly
subside during the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
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