[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
607 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from West Africa near 06N10W to a 1011
mb low near 03N14W to 01N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
03S24W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 01N-06N between 09W-16W and from
04S-02S between 25W-28W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
elsewhere within 90 nm south and 300 nm north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Lafayette Louisiana to 27N95W to
Brownsville Texas, then continues W and NW over northern Mexico to
27N101W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are located
between the front and the coast of Texas. Scattered moderate
convection is seen in the north-central Gulf from the front
eastward, N of 27N between 87W-94W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are elsewhere over the Gulf of Mexico to the south
and east of the cold front, with the exception of the far southern
Gulf and SE Gulf. Overcast low stratus with bases below 500 ft
along with patchy areas of dense fog are over portions of the NW
Gulf of Mexico, as well as the Texas and Louisiana coasts. A 1020
mb surface high is centered over the north-central Florida
peninsula. The high is sliding slowly eastward.

The weak cold front that extends across the NW Gulf from
Louisiana to S Texas will slowly drift SE before dissipating by
Sat. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sun
night, reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf on Mon,
and from S Florida to the SW Gulf Tue. Gale conditions are
possible over the SW Gulf W of the front Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient forced by a ridge extending from a
1033 mb high near 33N36W and troughing over Colombia is inducing
fresh trades over the entire eastern and central Caribbean E of
78W. Strong trades are in the south-central Caribbean, S of 15N
between 65W-77W. These fresh to strong trades are shown by a
scatterometer pass from Thursday evening. Moderate winds are over
the W Caribbean. Mid-upper level ridging and dry air cover the
eastern half of the Caribbean. Scattered clouds and isolated
showers are over the W Caribbean from 16N-19N between 80W-85W.
Isolated showers are also seen in the vicinity of Puerto Rico.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean through Tue. Winds will freshen over the eastern
Caribbean Mon night and Tue. Long period northerly swell will
propagate through tropical Atlantic waters and the Caribbean
Passages through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N67W to 27N73W. Scattered showers
exist within 90 nm of the front north of 28N. Isolated showers are
also seen N of 30N between between 50W and the cold front.
Scatterometer data from Thursday evening showed SW winds to 30 kt
extending to 300 nm ahead of the front N of 30N. Winds are at
least fresh to strong N of 29N between 50W and the front. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a high pressure
ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb surface high near 33N35W. Long
period NW to N swell of 10-15 ft is currently affecting waters
from 15N-31N between 35W-50W, highest from 23N-31N between 35W-
45W. Swells of 5-10 ft cover the area from 50W-64W.

The southern part of the cold front extending from 31N67W to
27N73W will stall and dissipate while the northern part of the
front N of 28N moves eastward. Long period northerly swell will
propagate through tropical Atlantic waters east of 68W through
Sat. A new cold front will move off northern Florida Mon night,
and shift eastward across the northern waters on Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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