[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the
Colombian low will contribute to cause gale force east winds in
the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the Colombian coast tonight.
These winds should drop below gale force on Sun morning and
continue through the next few days. Peak seas will reach 15 feet
in this area during this event. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of Africa with axis along 19W
from 01N- 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has little surface
component, however a moisture maximum is noticeable in the TPW and
is identifiable through the 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N and west of 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W, from
15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has little surface
component, though it is identifiable in 700 mb trough model
diagnostics. No significant convection is noted with the wave at
this time.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with axis along
62W from 07N-25N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is interacting
with an upper-level trough, which is weakening it at mid levels.
Latest scatterometer data depicts a slight wind shift related to
this wave, as well as an area of moderate to fresh winds.

A western Caribbean tropical is analyzed with axis along 81W and
south of 20N, moving W at about 10-15 kt. The wave is identifiable
in 700 mb model trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection
prevails in the wave's environment affecting the western
Caribbean waters west of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
from 09N13W to 06N27W. The ITCZ is along 06N28W to 04N45W into NE
Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms
are located 03N-05N between 41W-45W and from 04N-06N between 49W-
54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough prevails across the western Gulf. Upper
level southerly flow continues to bring tropical moisture into
the central and eastern Gulf enhancing scattered moderate
convection. This activity is also affecting the Florida Peninsula.
A 1018 mb surface high is centered near 27N93W. A surface trough
is analyzed from 30N89W to 26N90W, while another trough prevails
across central Florida along 28N. Latest scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the basin.

The trough over the north central Gulf will dissipate through
tonight as it drifts into the NW Gulf. Weak high pressure will
continue building over the NE Gulf through early next week.
Farther south, a trough will develop each afternoon over the
Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of Campeche
each evening, bringing fresh to locally strong northeast winds to
the eastern Bay of Campeche during the evening hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the waters off of the coast of
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. There are also two tropical
waves across the basin. Refer to the sections above for details.

Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds over the
south-central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere. The only area with convection at this time is west of
80W. This activity is related to the tropical wave currently in
that area.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low
pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force tonight
just offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with
resultant high seas continuing through Sun night before slowly
subsiding beginning on Mon. This gradient will also support
strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW
Caribbean through at least Tue night, with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

Upper-level diffluence prevails across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and west Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate convection west of
77W, affecting the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters. To the
east, a stationary front extends along 30N between 60W-70W
enhancing convection north of 29N between 55W-65W. A 1024 mb
surface high is centered near 29N48W. A cold front extends east of
this high from 31N39W to 28N44W. Gentle to moderate tradewinds
prevail south of 20N, while weaker winds are noted north of 20N.

The Bermuda high will build across the waters and
will support moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay
Sal through this evening, pulsing to strong near the approaches
to the Windward Passage tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and
slight to moderate seas will continue elsewhere through the
period. Ample atmospheric moisture over the western waters
will continue to produce scattered moderate convection through
the weekend. Some of this activity may be accompanied by locally
strong gusty winds and rough seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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