[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between
the Bermuda high and the Colombian low will contribute to cause
gale force east winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and off of the
Colombian coast. The wind speeds are forecast to diminish slightly
this morning and then again increase to gale force tonight. The
winds should drop below gale force Sun morning and remain that way
for the next few days. Peak seas will reach 15 feet through the
early morning, then lowered to 12 feet during the day and return
to 15 feet tonight. Please, read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of Africa near 16W from 19N
southward. The system has little surface component, however a
moisture maximum is noticeable in the TPW and is identifiable
through the 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted 04N-13N between the coast of Africa
near Senegal, Sierra Leone and Guinea extending westward between
12W to 19W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 47W from 15N southward,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The system has little surface component,
though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. No
significant showers or thunderstorms are seen along the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave located near 60W from 25N southward,
moving westward around 20 kt. The system has little surface component,
though is identifiable through 700 mb trough diagnostics. The tropical
wave is moving toward and interacting with an upper level trough,
helping to promote scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms from
12N to 16N between 50W and 63W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave located near 80W from 20N
southward is moving W at about 20 kt. The system has little
surface component, though is identifiable through 700 mb trough
diagnostics. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are seen
from 16N to 20N between 80-84W and from 07N-11N along the coast
of Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
from 09N13W to 06N27W. The ITCZ is along 06N28W to 04N45W into NE
Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms
are located 03N-05N between 41W-45W and from 04N-06N between 49W-
54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is located over the central Gulf near 30N88W
to 24N88W. This feature is interacting with a sharp upper-level
trough to produce scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms E
of 89W into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are present in the northwestern Gulf near Louisiana,
in the southwestern Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. ASCAT clearly
depicts the surface trough with light to gentle winds in the
vicinity of the wave axis. Anticyclonic flow is present west of
89W with a 1019 mb surface high pressure centered at 26N92W
maintaining light winds over the western Gulf.

A weak surface trough along 88W and north of 24N will move
westward across the central Gulf today and into the NW Gulf Sun.
This feature in combination with an upper-level low will bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the central and NW Gulf
waters through Sun. Unsettled weather is expected early next week
for the much of the central and western Gulf waters as deep
moisture spreads northwestward from the Carribbean Sea to the
Gulf. Otherwise, diurnal troughing will develop each afternoon
over the Yucatan Peninsula and move offshore to across the Bay of
Campeche each evening. The trough will bring fresh to locally
strong northeast winds to the eastern Bay of Campeche during the
evening hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale warnings are in effect for off of the coast of Colombia and
the Gulf of Venezuela. See special features section for details.

ASCAT scatterometer winds indicated peak winds of 30-35 kt north
of Colombia and the same over the Gulf of Venezuela. The remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean showed tradewinds of 25-30
kt with 10-20 kt observed in the western Caribbean. A tropical
wave just east of the Caribbean is moving toward and interacting
with an upper level trough over the Gulf. This is helping to
promote scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms across the
western Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras to Jamaica and southern
coast of Cuba.

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and low
pressure over northern Colombia will support gale force tonight
just offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with
resultant high seas continuing through Sun night before slowly
subsiding beginning on Mon. This gradient will will also support
strong to near gale force winds over much of the central and SW
Caribbean through at least Tue night, with moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough over the Gulf extends into the western
Atlantic supporting scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms
north of Cuba across the Florida Straits and the northern Bahamas
to 31N. A cold front is near the forecast area from 31N58W to
31N65W. Scattered moderate showers are within 180 nm southeast of
the front. Further east, a weak cold front extends from 31N39W to
28N45W, then a trough extends from that point to 28N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen 60 nm ahead of the front. Elsewhere
the region is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high that extends
east-west around along 32N. Tradewinds are generally 10-20 kt south
of 20N and weaker north of 20N.

The Bermuda high will build across the waters and will support
moderate to fresh breezes from Hispaniola to Cay Sal through this
evening, pulsing to strong near the approaches to the Windward
Passage tonight. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate
seas will continue elsewhere through the period. Ample atmospheric
moisture over the western waters including waters around the
Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through Sun. Some of this activity may be
accompanied by locally strong gusty winds and rough seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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