[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis
from 13N35W to 02N35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. A TPW maximum is
noted just behind the wave's axis. Model guidance also supports
this position. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's
environment between 30W-40W.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 18N44W to 09N47W, moving W
at 10-15 kt. This position is supported by model guidance. Dry
Saharan air surrounds the wave limiting convection at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 22N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is apparent in TPW
imagery. Also, model guidance and the Santo Domingo 12Z sounding
data suggest the passage of the wave over the island. Scattered
showers remain over Hispaniola and adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in the southwest Caribbean with axis along 83W
from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean south of 15N between 79W-
86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 07N31W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 05N38W
and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Aside
from the convection described near the tropical wave, scattered
showers are noted along and within 90 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level diffluence across the southwest Gulf coast supports
scattered moderate strong convection along the Mexico/Texas coast
and extending into the Gulf waters mainly west of 92W. A 1018 mb
surface high is centered near 26N83W maintains fair weather
across the eastern Gulf. Light and gentle southeast winds
continues across the east half of the Gulf, while moderate to
fresh winds prevail across the western half.

A surface trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Wed night as it moves
west- northwest over the SW Gulf. A surface ridge will dominate
the remainder of the basin supporting gentle to moderate winds
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Caribbean Sea, while
dry air prevails across the northwest portion of the basin.
Farther south, in an area with greater moisture content, scattered
moderate convection is seen over NW Colombia, as well as the
waters north of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Light to gentle
easterly trades are noted across the northwest Caribbean, and
moderate to fresh east winds prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea.

A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the
Colombian low is producing generally moderate to fresh tradewinds
across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. This will support
strong breezes north of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and the
Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high will strengthen by Wed
increasing winds across the central and southwest basin through
the weekend. Strong to near gale force winds are expected at night
over Colombia adjacent waters Tue night through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A surface trough northeast of the Bahamas extends from 31N68W to
26N74W. To the east, a stationary front enters the forecast area
near 31N49W to 26N59W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N45W
to 24N51W. Scattered showers are noted ahead of the front and in
the vicinity of the trough, mainly N of 26N. In the NE Atlantic,
a cold front enters the area near 32N12W to 25N18W. No
significant convection accompanies the front.

The trough northeast of the Bahamas will move westward through
Thu, likely reaching Florida by Fri. The pressure gradient on the
southwest side of the Bermuda high will remain weak, producing
light to gentle winds in the area through Wed. The Bermuda high
will strengthen Wed night through Sat and tradewinds will increase
to moderate east of the Bahamas, across the Old Bahama Channel,
and in the approaches to the Windward Passage.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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