[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, with axis
along 29W from 01N-11N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are seen near the vicinity of the wave axis. Model
guidance and TPW imagery support this position. At this time,
scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of
06N.

A weak tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic, with
its axis analyzed along 45W from 01N-11W, moving W at around 10-15
kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave
at this time.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with axis along
64W from 10N-20N, moving W around 10-15 kt. This feature is
apparent in the TPW imagery and in a recent ASCAT dataset, where
a wind shift is noted between 60W-65W. Scattered showers are
already developing in the wave's environment affecting the Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean with axis
analyzed along 76W from 06N-17N, moving W around 10-15 kt.
Associated convection is confined to inland areas over northern
Colombia and Panama mainly south of 12N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N17W
and continues 08N21W to 06N34W. The ITCZ begins near 06N34W and
continues to 05N44W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near
06N47W to 08N58W. Aside from the convection described near the
tropical waves, scattered showers are noted within the monsoon
trough mainly east of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level trough stretches from the Great Lakes Region
southward suppressing the upper ridge across the basin. Upper
level diffluence associated with this pattern supports for a line
of convection along the northern Gulf. A squall line enters the
Gulf and extends from 29N92W to 29N95W. This squall line will
continue to move southward through tonight while weakening.
Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin. No
significant convection is occurring across the central and
southern portion of the Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail across the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail across the western half of the Gulf.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through mod-week as it moves
west-northwest over the SW Gulf. High pressure ridge near the
U.S. Gulf coast will contribute toward generally quiescent winds
over the Gulf for the next several days. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected during the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin.

Abundant dry air is noted north of 11N and west of Haiti with a
mid to upper level trough in place across the region. Meanwhile,
tropical moisture continues to progress from northern South
America to the eastern Caribbean under a mid to upper level ridge.
Scattered showers are noted over the eastern half of the basin
mainly east of 74W. Moderate to fresh easterly trades are in the
south-central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere.

A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will continue producing generally moderate to fresh
tradewinds across the Caribbean. Winds will reach the strong
category north of Colombia and Gulf of Honduras. The Bermuda high
will strengthen by mid-week, increasing winds across the region
through Fri night. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for
the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A cold front enters the Atlantic waters near 31N52W and stretches
westward to 28N60W. The front stalls from that point to 31N71W,
then transitions into a warm front north of 31N. A pre-frontal
trough is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the trough. To the east, another cold
front west of the Canary Islands enters the Atlantic waters near
31N16W and stretches southwest to 25N28W. No significant
convection is associated with this boundary. A 1023 mb high
pressure is near 33N38W and is ridging prevails across the rest
of the basin.

The frontal boundary in the west Atlantic should dissipate by
mid-week. The pressure gradient on the southwest side of the
Bermuda high is weak and producing quiescent winds in the area
through Wed. As the Bermuda high strengthens by the end of the
week, the tradewinds will be enhanced, especially north of
Hispaniola and the approach to the Windward Passage. No tropical
cyclone activity is expected during the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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