[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulse of gale force winds off the
coast of Colombia tonight. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected across
the south-central Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic with axis
near 28W S of 10N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted near this feature from 05N-06N
between 28W-30W.

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic with axis
near 55W S of 14N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
persist with this wave from 09N-12N between 52W-56W.

A southwest Caribbean tropical wave is located north of eastern
Panama near 80W S of 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Dry air
continues to limit convection near this wave, although scattered
thunderstorms are continue across Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 13N17W to
06N35W. The ITCZ continues from 06N35W to the coast of Brazil near
05N52W. Aside from the convection described above, isolated
thunderstorms are noted near the monsoon trough from 05N- 10N
between 15W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid-level and surface ridging prevail across the Gulf of Mexico
with a 1020 mb high along the coast of south-central Florida near
28N84W. Tranquil conditions are seen throughout the basin. Light
to gentle winds are in the eastern Gulf under the high, with
moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the western Gulf.
Moderate to fresh winds are north of the Yucatan due to the
thermal trough, analyzed from 22N87W to 18N93W.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night through Wednesday as it moves
west- northwest over the SW Gulf. High pressure centered over the
eastern Gulf will remain in control of the weather pattern across
the region during the next several days. The pressure gradient
between the high and lower pressures over Mexico will result in
moderate to fresh southerly winds across the western Gulf through
Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see to the Special Features section above for more
information on the Caribbean Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section for details on a tropical wave traversing the basin.

Dry Saharan air covers the NW Caribbean, with little to no
convective activity noted in the latest satellite imagery.
Scattered moderate convection near the monsoon trough continues
over the southern Caribbean off the coasts of Panama and Costa
Rica, S of 11N between 76W-84W. Fresh to strong trades are seen
across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are seen
in the E Caribbean and light to moderate winds are in the NW
basin.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coast
of Colombia through Saturday night. Strong winds will prevail in
the south-central Caribbean thereafter. Strong to near gale force
winds are expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night
through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about the
two tropical waves currently moving across the tropical Atlantic.

A line of thunderstorms are seen along a pre-frontal trough,
analyzed from 31N68W to 30N73W, in the western Atlantic from 29N-
31N between 64W-74W. Another area of isolated thunderstorms is
seen in the central Atlantic from 25N-31N between 54W-58W.
Otherwise, ridging from a 1024 mb high pressure near 26N43W
dominates the region. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds are in
the western Atlantic, W of 62W.

The Atlantic ridge, that currently dominates the area, will
weaken as a couple of weak frontal boundaries move across the
region Saturday through Monday. Then, a weak pressure gradient
will persist across the forecast area through Wednesday. Fresh to
strong SW winds will affect the NE waters through early this
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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