[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201910 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will support minimal gale
force winds off the coast of Colombia by Friday afternoon and
continue through early Saturday morning. Gales will return again
Saturday night. Seas of 12-18 ft are expected across the south-
central Caribbean. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 38W S of 12N, moving W at 20-25 kt. The
prevailing ridge to the north is providing strong easterly trades
across the region making a favorable environment for the wave to
move westward at 20 to 25 kt. A moisture maximum in the LPW is
noticeable near the wave. Scattered moderate convection is seen
near this wave from 03N-09N between 35W-41W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W S of 17N, moving W at
20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within the
northern vicinity of the wave from 14N-17N between 65W-70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W S of 16N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
south of 10N near the coast of Panama and the interaction of the
Pacific monsoon trough. North of 10N, no convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N13W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to 08N33W,
then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N41W to the coast of
Brazil near 04N51W. Aside from the convection near the tropical
wave, scattered showers are moving along the monsoon trough from
05N-09N between 20W-32W, and another area of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the ITCZ from 05N-07N
between 45W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough is exiting the Gulf and moving east of FL
into the western Atlantic while a mid-upper level ridge builds
from the west. A line of showers and thunderstorms is seen
across the Florida Panhandle from 29N-30N. There are also some
dissipating showers seen within 50 nm of the central coast of
Louisiana. The trough along the Yucatan Peninsula is analyzed from
24N90W to 18N93W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow are seen
across much of the basin, with moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds in the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are in the
eastern basin.

A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan Peninsula will produce
fresh to strong winds each night as it moves northwestward over
the SW Gulf. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will slowly move
north from the central to the northern Gulf by Sun, then persist
there through Mon night leading toward generally quiescent
conditions. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the
next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the special features section in regards to the Caribbean Gale
warning.

Two tropical waves are traversing the Caribbean Sea. See the
Tropical Waves section above for details. An upper level trough
extends to Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands with a mid-upper
level ridge over the central and eastern Caribbean. The GOES-16
Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that a plume of African
dust has reached the western, central and eastern Caribbean Sea.
Strong subsidence is keeping convection at a minimum. Most of the
activity in the Caribbean is associated with the tropical wave in
addition to thunderstorms adjacent to the Pacific monsoon trough
moving off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S of 10N between
76W-82W. There are also isolated showers approaching Puerto Rico
due to the proximity of the tropical wave along 68W.

Fresh to strong winds continue across the central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the eastern basin, with
moderate trades in the northwest Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the Colombian
low will support nocturnal pulsing of minimal gales off the coasts
of Colombia Fri night and Sat night. Strong winds are expected to
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras each night through at least Mon
night. The tropical wave near 68W will produce scattered thunderstorms
with gusty winds as it moves W across the central and western
Caribbean through Sat. Elsewhere, generally moderate to fresh
trades will prevail through the weekend and into early next week.
No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the
western Atlantic from 27N-31N between 64W-78W. The GOES-16
Saharan Air Layer tracking product shows that a plume of African
dust extends from Puerto Rico to the Central Bahamas, including
Hispaniola and eastern and central Cuba. Otherwise, fair weather
prevails across the rest of the basin as surface ridging from a
1025 mb high near 27N53W and a 1022 mb high near 26N32W dominate
the area.

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and Hispaniola
will produce strong winds north of Hispaniola this afternoon and
tonight before relaxing on Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds will
affect the northern waters through Fri ahead of a cold front that
will move off the U.S. East Coast Fri night. A high pressure ridge
will dominate much of the region through Sat, then weaken Sun
into Mon as the cold front continues moving E across the western
Atlantic. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next
several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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