[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...from 11N to 13N between 72W and
78W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela...Expect NE to E gale-
force winds tonight, until later this morning on Wednesday. The
sea heights will be ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet. The gale-
force winds are forecast to slow down, to be at less than gale-
force, from Wednesday morning until Wednesday night. The gale-
force winds will be present during the late night/early morning
hours, tonight, on Wednesday night, and on Thursday night.
Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, or at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/24W, from 14N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 11N between 20W and 25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/54W from 15N
southward. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from
09.5N to 11.5N between 54W and 58W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N
to 16N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 18N
southward. The wave is moving through an area of upper level
anticyclonic wind flow, that covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W
eastward. Rainshowers are possible in the area of upper level
anticyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 17N
southward. No significant deep layer convective precipitation is
apparent at this moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N14W, to 07N20W 07N24W, and 06N26W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N26W to 05N35W, 05N48W, and 06N50W. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N
to 07N between 25W and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from
14N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level pattern at the moment consists of a ridge, to a
trough, to a ridge, from west to east. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N to 29N between the
Florida west coast and 85W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 24N northward from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from south Florida into the west central
Gulf of Mexico.

An area of rainshowers and thunderstorms, in the NE Gulf of
Mexico, will drift eastward through late Wednesday. The winds
and seas may be higher near the thunderstorms. A diurnal trough
that forms in the Yucatan Peninsula will produce fresh to
locally strong winds each night as it moves westward, off the
coast. A ridge will prevail in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico
through Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of NW Cuba.
The cyclonic center is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A weak upper level trough passes from the north central part of
the Caribbean Sea into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
72W eastward. Rainshowers are possible in the area of upper
level anticyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 07N76W in Colombia, northwestward
through Panama, 09N80W, across the northern coastal areas of
Panama, beyond 09N84W in SW Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Numerous strong rainshowers are in parts of Colombia,
Panama, and the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and in the
eastern Pacific Ocean, from 04N to 10N between 74W and 79W.

The surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic Ocean ridge
and the Colombia low pressure, will allow the wind speeds to
pulse to minimal gale-force off the coasts of Colombia and
Venezuela each night this week. Strong winds are expected to
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. Generally moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of NW Cuba.
The cyclonic center is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the
Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward. A surface trough extends from
the NW Bahamas northwestward to 32N80W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from Cuba
northward from 70W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 19N northward from 74W eastward. A 1023 mb high pressure
center is near 26N46W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward from 50W eastward. Rainshowers are possible
in this area, in areas of broken to overcast low to middle level
clouds.

A surface trough will move slowly, eastward, off the coast of NE
Florida through late Wednesday. Strong winds will pulse N of
Hispaniola each night through Thursday night. The wind speeds
will increase some in the northern waters from Thursday through
Friday, as the surface pressure gradient tightens between the
Atlantic Ocean ridge and a low pressure system that is moving
off the NE United States. A ridge will dominate the rest of the
region through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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