[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Expect NE to E gale-force winds
in 18 hours, on Monday night, and sea heights ranging from 10
feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W. The gale-
force winds are forecast to last for 12 hours or so until
Tuesday morning, to be at less than gale-force for the next 12
hours, and then return to gale-force again at 42 hours on
Tuesday night. Please, read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W from 13N southward.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N
to 08N between 29W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 14N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 05N to 10N between 40W and 46W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 14N
southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N
to 12N between 56W and 63W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 18N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is
between 60W and 72W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 19N
southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent with this wave at this moment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea,
near 10N14W, to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N27W to
05N33W, to 07N47W and to 06N52W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 08N
between 36W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are spread
through the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level shortwave trough is moving through the
easternmost sections of the Gulf of Mexico to Florida. Remaining
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the areas
from the Windward Passage, northwestward across Cuba, to the NW
half of the Bahamas, and Florida, including the surrounding
waters, from 32N southward from 72W westward.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, into the west central sections.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf of Mexico through
Friday. Moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds will
continue for most of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near
24N56W, beyond the NE part of the Caribbean Sea near 18N64W,
continuing toward La Peninsula de la Guajira of northern
Colombia. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side
of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between Colombia and Costa
Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the
coastal areas of Panama near 80W, Costa Rica, and SE Nicaragua.

The tightening surface pressure gradient, between the Atlantic
Ocean ridge and the Colombia low pressure, will allow the wind
speeds to pulse to minimal gale-force off the coasts of Colombia
and Venezuela at night starting tonight. Fresh to strong winds
are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level shortwave trough is moving through the
easternmost sections of the Gulf of Mexico to Florida.
Remaining isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover
the areas from the Windward Passage, northwestward across Cuba,
to the NW half of the Bahamas, and Florida, including the
surrounding waters, from 32N southward from 72W westward.

A dissipating stationary front is along 33N47W 31N56W, to just
to the east of Bermuda. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from
29N northward between 57W and 70W.

An upper level trough is along 30N48W 24N56W, beyond the NE part
of the Caribbean Sea near 18N64W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are within 300 nm on either side of the trough.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is from 250 nm to 300
nm to the NE of the Azores. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 22N northward from 40W eastward.
A cold front passes through 32N21W to 28N30W, to 28N35W and
29N38W. Rainshowers are possible from 25N northward between
Africa and 40W.

A surface trough will move slowly eastward off NE Florida
Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere, a ridge will cover the
area through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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