[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 15N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, probably
related more to the ITCZ, are from 04N to 10N between 20W and
30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 14N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers, probably related more to the ITCZ, are from 02N to
10N between 39W and 46W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 17N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers,
probably related more to the ITCZ, are from 10N southward
between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 19N
southward, moving through the Mona Passage. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Mona Passage. The wave is moving through
the area of an upper level trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, to 09N18W and 08N23W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 07N30W, curving to 06N35W,
03N43W, and the coastal plains of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered
to numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains and
coastal waters, from Liberia and Sierra Leone to Guinea-Bissau
and Guinea, between 10W and 18W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere, away from
the tropical waves, from 10N southward between 18W and 60W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 03N northward from 10W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, on the
eastern side of a 100W trough that is in Mexico. A NW-to-SE
oriented warm front cuts across Louisiana. A western Atlantic
Ocean cold front reaches 29N77W. The front becomes stationary at
29N77W, and it continues to Florida near 28N82W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are to the east of the line that runs from
29N83W to 27N90W to 22N97W. Similar precipitation is in Mexico
from 20N southward from 100W eastward.

High pressure will prevail across the area through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 22N58W cyclonic circulation
center, to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, to 15N72W in the
Caribbean Sea, and toward the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea
and the Atlantic Ocean from 16N to 23N between 62W and 74W,
surrounding Puerto Rico and nearby islands to the east of it,
and Hispaniola. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 17N to
21N between the Mona Passage and 80W.

High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds
in the south central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.
High pressure will strengthen early next week, and the wind
speeds will increase to near gale-force off Colombia and
Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N70W, to
30N74W, and 29N77W. The front becomes stationary at 29N77W, and
it continues to Florida near 28N82W. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers are to the
west of the line that passes through 32N67W to SE Cuba.

An upper level trough extends from a 34N29W upper level cyclonic
circulation center, to 25N30W, to 23N40W, to a 22N58W cyclonic
circulation center. The trough continues from 22N58W to Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and to 15N72W in the Caribbean Sea.
Rainshowers are possible from 24N northward between 20W and 50W,
and from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. A cold front passes
through 32N27W to 28N30W and 26N34W. The cold front is
dissipating from 26N34W to 26N40W. A surface trough is along
26N40W 26N44W and 25N50W. A second and separate cold front
passes through 32N49W to 30N53W to 31N56W.

The current cold front that reaches Florida will shift eastward,
before stalling and dissipating, from near Bermuda to central
Florida on Saturday. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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