[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

A tropical wave has an axis along 25W from 04N-14N, moving west
at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are seen in the vicinity of the wave
axis. Plenty of Saharan dust is noted surrounding the wave,
limiting convective activity.

A tropical wave extends along 38W from 03N-14N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
intersects the ITCZ, from 04N-07N between 34W-41W. Moisture
associated with the wave could enhance rains over the Lesser
Antilles on Monday.

A tropical wave is along 53W from 07N-16N, moving west around 15
kt. Convection is currently limited near wave axis. However,
enhanced showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Lesser
Antilles on Saturday.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W from 08N-18N
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted
near the wave axis from 15N-17N, in the Mona Passage and along
the N coast of Venezuela near the wave axis. Isolated showers are
between the wave axis and the Lesser Antilles. A distinct maximum
in total precipitable water accompanies the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the W coast
of Africa near the Guinea/Guinea Bissau border and extends to near
08N23W. The ITCZ begins near 07N26W to 06N36W, continuing W of a
tropical wave from 05N40W to 02N50W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered showers
are seen within 150 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 41W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening frontal boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico
dissipated at 14/2100 UTC. Abundant moisture and shower activity
prevails in the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, southeast of
a line from Clearwater Florida to Tuxpan Mexico. A surface trough
along with upper level divergence are enhancing scattered moderate
convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche and the northern
Yucatan Peninsula. Weak low-mid level ridging is over the SE Gulf
of Mexico, but subsidence is not strong enough to dry the
atmosphere due to the upper-level dynamics and moisture advection
into the region.

High pressure will build across the area this weekend and prevail
through Wednesday. Despite the building high pressure, expect
scattered showers and tstorms each day through the weekend over
the far SE Gulf as well as the Bay of Campeche due to enhanced
moisture in the area. Heavy rain is possible through the weekend
over portions of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
see the Tropical Waves section for details. A surface trough is
just W of Jamaica, and is forecast to move westward across the
remainder of the basin through Saturday. Currently, scattered
tstorms are seen over Cuba, with isolated showers and storms over
the NW Caribbean. The trough could enhance some shower and
thunderstorm activity over the Cayman Islands and western Cuba
through Saturday. ASCAT from Friday morning showed fresh trade
winds covering much of the Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds
in the south central Caribbean through the weekend. The ridge in
the central Atlantic will strengthen early next week, and winds
will increase to near gale off Colombia and Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 14/2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from 31N76W to Cape
Canaveral Florida. A surface trough is SE of the front and extends
from 28N75W through the NW Bahamas to 23N79W. These features,
along with abundant moisture and strong upper-level divergence in
the area are leading to scattered moderate convection across
portions of the northwest Bahamas and SE Florida from 24N-27N
between 76W-81W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
elsewhere from 23N-31N between 71W-80W, excluding the SE Bahamas,
where dry Saharan Air has moved in. High pressure generally
prevails over the west-central subtropical Atlantic north of 20N
between 50W-70W. A cold front enters the area near 32N28W to
28N31W to 27N40W. Scattered showers are seen ahead of the front,
north of 28N between 22W-27W.

The front off the southeast U.S. coast will weaken and dissipate
on Saturday. Even though the front is forecast to dissipate, deep
tropical moisture coupled with upper-level diffluence will lead
to a rainy weekend from the northwest Bahamas to South Florida to
central and western Cuba.

Satellite imagery and upper-air sounding data indicate that a
patch of Saharan dust has reached as far west as the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Model guidance suggests that this Saharan Air
Layer patch is likely to turn northward while dispersing, and it
is not expected to reach as far west as South Florida.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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