[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

A tropical wave has an axis along 20/21W from 05N-13N, moving
west at 15-20 kt. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward
propagation of the wave. Scattered moderate showers are seen
within 90 nm E and 150 nm W of the wave axis from 07N-10N. While
deep layer moisture is abundant along the wave axis based on the
TPW product, plenty of Saharan dust is noted north of 12N,
emerging into the Atlantic off the coast of Senegal.

A tropical wave extends along 33W from 03N-12N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N-10N
along and within 180 nm W of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 47/48W from 05N-15N, moving west at 15
kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. The GOES-16
LPW products show a maximum in low-mid level moisture. Abundant
Saharan dust encompasses the wave as seen on the GOES-16 RGB
Geocolor imagery a few hours ago, prior to sunset.

The tropical wave that was previously relocated from 60W to 69W
has been relocated back to 60W based on model diagnostics that
trace the wave along 60W back to the coast of Africa. A distinct
maximum in total precipitable water accompanies the wave along
60W. The wave is moving west around 10 kt. Radar from the Windward
Islands and satellite imagery show scattered showers and isolated
tstorms moving through the Windward and southern Leeward Islands,
as well as Trinidad.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 07N31W, then
continues west of a tropical wave near 06N35W to the mouth of the
Amazon River near 00N51W. Aside of the convection associated with
the tropical waves, no significant convection is noted, although
an area of numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong
convection is along the monsoon trough just inland from the W
coast of Africa over Guinea and Guinea-Bissau.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend
near 30N84W to 26N90W to 25N96W. A reinforcing cold front extends
from near Pensacola Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana to near Corpus
Christi Texas. Farther south, a surface trough extends from 19N94W
to 26N90W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the
dissipating stationary front east of 93W, as well as in the SE
Gulf of Mexico and over the Florida Peninsula. Upper-level
diffluence is enhancing the convection over the SE Gulf and
Florida Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is also seen
along the surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is currently seen over the western
Yucatan Peninsula and extreme eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N
between 89W-92W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico southeast of a line from 30N86W to
25N98W. Drier conditions are over the NW Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front over the northern Gulf will stall and then lift
north of the area Friday. Enhanced moisture will linger in the
southeastern Gulf, leading to a continuation of scattered to
numerous showers and tstorms in the SE Gulf. High pressure will
build across the basin this weekend and prevail through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is bringing scattered showers to the Windward
Islands. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details. Most
of the Caribbean waters are currently free of significant shower
activity, although scattered showers and tstorms are seen near
the land areas of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, SE Cuba and Haiti,
left over from the afternoon heating. Scattered moderate
convection is seen over Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Fresh
trades prevail throughout much of the Caribbean, with locally
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, and gentle winds in
the area south of Cuba.

High pressure north of the area will support strong trade winds
in the south central Caribbean through Mon before increasing in
areal extent Mon night and Tue. Moderate to locally fresh trades
are expected elsewhere. Expect enhanced afternoon and early
evening shower and thunderstorm activity over portions of Cuba
through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Cape Hatteras to Brunswick Georgia, with
a surface trough ahead of it. Upper-level diffluence over Florida
along the SE base of an upper-trough over the eastern U.S. is
inducing scattered moderate convection over Florida. Scattered
showers and tstorms are seen over the western Atlantic north of
25N and west of 76W, including the Florida Keys and Florida
Straits, as well as the central and northwest Bahamas. Additional
isolated tstorms are seen north of 27N between 71W-76W.

A ridge dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1025
mb high pressure centered near 30N55W and a 1024 mb high near
27N39W. In between the two surface highs, a cold front enters the
area near 32N32W to 29N41W. A surface trough continues from 29N41W
to 27N52W. Scattered showers are ahead of the front east of 33W.
Broken clouds and isolated showers are near the cold front west of
33W.

A high pressure ridge, that currently extends W from the 1025 mb
high near 30N55W, will shift eastward through Fri. A cold front
will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight and shift eastward
across the waters north of 30N through Sat. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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