[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
733 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale force winds are forecast along the coast of Morocco. Meteo-
France is forecasting in its 24-48 hour outlook Gale force winds
for the zone of AGADIR. Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas
forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-
METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W from 01N-14N, moving
W at 10 kt. The wave shows up well in the satellite imagery and
in the model diagnostic data. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-10N between 13W-20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 01N-14N,
moving W at 10 kt. The wave shows up in long-loop satellite
imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave
axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 03N-15N, moving
W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-15N between
57W-65W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 02N-14N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea- Bissau
near 13N15W to 07N20W to 05N24W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to
05N34W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N37W to the
coast of Brazil 02N50W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-
07N between 24W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W
to the NE Gulf near 29N88W to Texas near 29N95W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front. Scattered moderate
convection is in the warm section over the NE Gulf and Florida N
of 25N and E of 88W. Of note in the upper levels, a sharp upper
level trough is over the E Gulf and Florida enhancing convection.

The stationary front will be reinforced by another cold front
moving across the NW Gulf Mon and Mon night. The merged front will
reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas by
Mon night, then become stationary and weaken over the northern
Gulf Tue through Wed night. Fresh north to northeast winds will
follow the front before diminishing to mainly gentle winds Tue. A
weak cold front will move across the north-central Gulf on Wed and
across the NE Gulf Wed night into Thu and become stationary by
late Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the south central Caribbean, and weakest winds over the
far SW Caribbean. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is over Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is inland from Guatemala to Panama.
Similar convection is inland over Colombia and Venezuela.

Fresh to strong trades are expected over the south central
Caribbean through Thu night along with building seas, except
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia where near gale force winds
will occur late tonight and early Mon morning. Strong winds will
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Otherwise,
a weak ridge N of the area will support moderate to locally fresh
trade winds across most of the Caribbean during the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic, to include
the N Bahamas, N of 24N and W of 77W. A large 1031 mb high is
centered over the eastern Atlantic near 37N30W. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic
near 23N65W. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center.
Another upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 28N42W.
Scattered showers are within 240 nm of this center.

A ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic and the Bahamas over the
next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate southerly
winds N of 22N, and an E to SE wind flow S of 22N, with seas
generally under 6 ft. A moist airmass will remain overhead and
support unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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