[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Jun 9 12:54:52 CDT 2019


AXNT20 KNHC 091754 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W from 14N
southward. The wave shows up well in the satellite imagery and
in the model diagnostic data. Scattered strong rainshowers are
from 07N to 09N between 12W and 18W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N to 11N between
10W and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 14N
southward. The wave shows up in long-loop satellite imagery.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover
the area that is from 03N to 10N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 16N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area
that is from 11N southward between 53W and 61W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 15N
southward. The wave is moving through the area of an upper level
trough. Deep convective precipitation in the Caribbean Sea is
limited at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N15W to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to
05N33W, to 02N41W to 03N47W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers, in general, away from the tropical
waves, are from 04N to 08N between 20W and 30W, and from 01N to
10N between 40W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the north central and NW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. It passes through SW Alabama, to the coastal waters
of Mississippi and Louisiana, toward the upper Texas Gulf coast.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 26N northward from 88W
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in
Florida, and from Cuba and Hispaniola to 25N between 70W and
Florida. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 25N northward
from 70W westward.

The current cold front will move slowly SE across the NE Gulf of
Mexico through Monday night. The front will become stationary
and weaken in the SE Gulf of Mexico from Tuesday through
Wednesday night. Fresh N to NE winds following the front will
diminish to gentle on Tuesday. A weak cold front will cross the
N central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The front will move
across the NE Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and Thursday,
and then become stationary by late Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 23N66W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, through the Mona Passage, into
northern Colombia. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the areas from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N
in the Atlantic Ocean between 62W and 71W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba and Hispaniola to 25N
between 70W and Florida. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of the line
that runs from central Nicaragua to the eastern coast of Costa
Rica, to the coastal waters of Panama to the south of 10N from
80W westward, and to the area of the Panama/Colombia border.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the SE of the line that
runs from 19N60W to 14N70W to 13N71W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the S central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday night, along with building seas,
except within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia where near gale
force winds will occur between late tonight and daybreak on
Monday. Strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight,
on Thursday and Thursday night. Elsewhere, a weak ridge N of the
area will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across
most of the Caribbean during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 28N43W upper level cyclonic
circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that
is near 23N66W. The trough continues beyond the Mona Passage to
northern Colombia. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the areas from 17N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N
in the Atlantic Ocean between 62W and 71W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from Cuba and Hispaniola to 25N
between 70W and Florida. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 20N northward between 55W and Florida.

A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 38N31W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
northward. A cold front passes through 33N20W to 32N27W.

High pressure centered SE of New England will move ESE toward
the central Atlantic Ocean, as low pressure in the SE United
States moves NE along the United States E coast. These features
generally will maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds in the
area through Thursday night. A moist airmass will remain
overhead and support unsettled weather in the form of scattered
rainshowers with thunder.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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