[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is partially over Africa along 13W from 01N-12N,
moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well in the satellite imagery
and in the model diagnostic data. Isolated moderate convection is
from 04N-08N between 11W-18W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 01N-15N, moving W at
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between
30W-38W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 01N-14N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N
between 45W-51W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 02N-15N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen in
between the wave axis and the Windward Islands south of 15N and
over northern Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 08N18W to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from
06N22W to 05N32W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N34W to
05N47W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ between
21W-30W and between 38W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Mobile Alabama to 27N91W to S
Texas near 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is in the NE
Gulf north of 26N east of 87W due to upper-level diffluence.
Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen between western Cuba
and the Dry Tortugas. Gentle winds cover most of the Gulf, based
on the latest ASCAT pass.

A broad low pressure area over the southern U.S. will maintain
moderate to locally fresh southwest to west winds across the NE
and north-central Gulf through today. The weak stationary front
extending from Mobile Alabama to S Texas will weaken in the
north-central Gulf today. A stronger cold front will move across
the NW Gulf Monday, then weaken in the northern Gulf Tuesday and
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest ASCAT pass indicates that fresh trades cover most of
the central Caribbean Sea as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Strong
winds are seen in the south-central Caribbean south of 14.5N
between 72W-76W. Moderate winds are over the E and NW Caribbean.
An upper-trough N of Puerto Rico is inducing scattered showers and
isolated tstorms over and around Hispaniola. In the SW Caribbean,
scattered moderate convection is south of 14N and west of 79W in
association with the East Pacific monsoon trough. The SE Caribbean
is covered with scattered showers between the Windward Islands and
the tropical wave along 69W.

A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally
fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean during the next
several days. Fresh to strong trades are expected to continue in
the south-central Caribbean through Thursday night, with building
seas to 9 or 10 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper-level diffluence that is producing convection in the NE
Gulf, mentioned above, is also causing scattered showers and
tstorms over northern and central Florida and the western Atlantic
north of 27N and west of 76W. Isolated activity is seen farther
south in the Florida Straits. An upper level low near 24N64W is
inducing scattered thunderstorms from 20N-27N between 60W-73W. The
remainder of the basin east of 60W is dominated by surface
ridging, anchored by a 1033 mb high near 37N34W.

A ridge will dominate most of the forecast area through Monday
while a low pressure area will remain over the SE United States.
Moderate southerly winds are expected across the area the next few
days. A weak cold front will reach the waters off NE Florida by
late Tuesday, then lift N of the area by Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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