[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071820
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 02N45W to 10N43W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave remains in a
hostile environment, including dry air and strong wind shear.
This limits the convection associated with it.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 04N57W to 13N56W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a
similar environment than the wave above. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen from 08N-12N between 53W-60W.

A tropical wave is over Central America and extending into the
western Caribbean and the eastern Pacific with axis extending
from 05N85W to 20N86W, moving west at 15-20 kt. No convective
activity is associated with this feature at this time in the
Caribbean waters and into Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the Sierra Leone coast near 07N12W
and continues to 06N19W. The ITCZ begins near 06N19W and continues
to 05N42W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N45W to the
coast of Brazil near 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 04N-08N between Sierra
Leone near11W-18W. Scattered showers are seen along the ITCZ from
03N-07N between 25W-30W and from 06N-07 between 38W to 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across the central
and eastern Gulf, from 83W-93W, with moderate to fresh sw winds
bring abundant moisture from the Gulf into the southeastern U.S.
Fresh southerly winds are also seen north of the Yucatan. A
trough is seen in the Bay of Campeche from 23N89W to 18N92W. A
few showers can not be ruled out near the trough axis.

A persistent low pressure area over the SE U.S. will maintain a
moderate SW to W winds across the NE Gulf through the weekend. A
weak cold front will move off the Texas coast early Sat, then stall
across the north-central Gulf by Sat night. A stronger cold front
will move into the NW Gulf Mon, then weaken in the northern Gulf
on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-upper level trough continues to dig across the northeastern
Caribbean with a weakening upper level ridge over the northwestern
portion of the basin. The only convective activity seen in the
northern Caribbean is isolated thunderstorms lingering within the
Windward Passage, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Isolated showers
are also seen across Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The most active part of the basin remains in the southern
Caribbean due to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. An area of
scattered strong convection is seen near the coast of Colombia
from 09N-13N between 70W-80W. Otherwise, trades across the
central and western Caribbean remain moderate to fresh with light
to gentle winds in the eastern basin.

A weak ridge north of the area will support moderate to locally
fresh trade winds for most of the Caribbean the next few days.
Fresh to strong trade winds are expected in the south- central
Caribbean Sun through Tue, with seas building to 9 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level short-wave trough in the central Atlantic
continues to support a surface trough from 22N70W to 29N62W, with
a 1013 mb low that has developed along the trough near 28N65W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the
northeast and eastern portion of the trough from 21N-31N between
58W-65W. Abundant moisture across the NE Gulf of Mexico and
divergent flow aloft continues to fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula and east coast and
across the Bahamas north of 27N and west of 76W. Otherwise,
surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin being
anchored by a 1030 mb high near 37N39W.

A surface trough N of Puerto Rico will lift northward today, with
a weak low along the trough axis passing near Bermuda overnight.
High pressure will build across the region tonight through Sun.
Most seas will remain less than 4 ft through Tue.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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