[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
723 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 03N-19N,
moving W around 15 kt. A 1011 mb low is embedded on the wave axis
near 10N31W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the low.
Looking ahead, upper- level winds are forecast to gradually
become more conducive for further development as the wave moves
westward, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 05N-23N, moving
W around 15 kt. The wave is well defined on low level precipitable
water imagery. Recent scatterometer satellite passes also depicts
the wave at the surface. Despite abundant low level moisture, the
wave is moving through an area of fairly dry mid and upper levels,
and no significant convection is noted.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 10N-22N, moving W at
10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, NW Venezuela, and N Colombia. Widely
scattered moderate convection is also over the SW Caribbean from
10N-18N between 79W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 10N31W to 13N44W to 11N49W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical
wave from 10N51W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is off the coast of W
Africa from 10N-13N between 17W-22W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 06N-13N between 36W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over the north central Gulf of Mexico.
5-10 kt variable surface winds are over most of the Gulf. 15 kt
easterly winds are over the Straits of Florida. Buoys and
altimeter passes show seas mainly 2 ft or less. The main weather
maker in the Gulf of Mexico is an upper low centered over the NE
Gulf near 28N88W. Divergence east of this upper low is producing
scattered moderate convection over the Florida Peninsula.
Divergence west of the center is enhancing showers off the coast
of Texas. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is
inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Looking ahead, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
northern Gulf through the next several days with gentle to
moderate wind flow and relatively tranquil seas across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough N of Puerto Rico extends from 24N65W to 18N68W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17N-21N
between 63W-68W, to include the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the tropical wave over the central Caribbean
will reach the far western Caribbean by early Sat. Another
tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic and eastern
Caribbean Thu through Sat night and the central Caribbean Sun and
Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be associated
with these waves. In the wake of these waves, trade winds will
increase to strong speeds over the south central Caribbean waters.
Another tropical wave currently over the far eastern Atlantic is
likely to significantly increase winds and seas over the Tropical
N Atlantic early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 34N72W. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 33N45W to 31N52W
to 25N55W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A
1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 33N34W. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered N of Puerto Rico near
26N61W enhancing convection S of the center. Another upper level
low is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N52W enhancing
showers.

Over the W Atlantic, the northern part of a tropical wave is
moving through the southeastern Bahamas, with associated scattered
showers and thunderstorms over waters S of 27N and W of 70W. This
activity is attendant at times by fresh to strong winds. This
part of the wave will continue to move west-northwestward across
the central Bahamas through Thu, then northwestward across the NW
Bahamas Thu night and to southern and central Florida Fri through
through Sat night. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall,
will impact the waters between Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba
through Sat night. Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally
prevail across the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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