[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST consists of gale-force winds for the marine zone
AGADIR, near the coast of Morocco, until 31/0000 UTC. The
surface pressure gradient, between high pressure near the Azores
and low pressure in North Africa, will lead to the gale-force
northerly winds. Please read the latest high seas forecast from
METEO FRANCE, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 17N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 06N to 10N between 24W and 31W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 23N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 07N to 12N
between 39W and 44W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/54W from 18N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 09N to 11N between 56W and 58W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N southward between 50W and
60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave curves from 22N65W in the Atlantic
Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 16N69W in the Caribbean Sea,
to 07N71W in NW Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea from 15N to 22N between 55W and 71W. Some of the areas that
are being affected range from the islands of the NE Caribbean
Sea, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the eastern sections of
Hispaniola, and parts of the SE Bahamas. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and parts of the
southeast Bahamas during the next few days. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the
next several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas. It is
possible that the atmospheric conditions may become marginally
conducive for development late this week when the disturbance
moves near Florida and the northwestern Bahamas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 11N25W to 10N41W. The ITCZ is along 09N45W 07N53W 07N60W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to 08N between 10W
and 16W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 11N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...


A middle level to upper level trough passes through the Florida
Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The surface
pressure pattern is flat and weak. A surface ridge extends from
a 1020 mb high pressure center that is in SE Alabama, into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to 20N along the coast of
Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are spread across the
entire Gulf of Mexico.

Overall high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters, supporting
gentle to moderate winds through the week. Surface troughs will
develop during the afternoons on the Yucatan Peninsula. The
troughs will move westward into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, especially early in the week, and generate fresh to
strong winds during the overnight hours. Weak surface troughs
also will develop in the Florida Peninsula, and move into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, bringing some rainshowers and
thunderstorms during the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly the entire
Caribbean Sea. Upper level SW wind flow is in the far NW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. This SW wind flow is at the periphery of
upper level cyclonic wind flow that is in the Gulf of Mexico.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Gulf of Honduras, and
elsewhere in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N
northward from the Windward Passage westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, beyond 06N80W in
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 10N southward from 76W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 30/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.81 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.65 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.40
in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.31 in Bermuda, 0.22 in Trinidad,
0.20 in Acapulco, and 0.04 in Guadeloupe.

A pair of tropical waves crossing the Caribbean will lower the
wind speeds in the basin until Thu night, then fresh to strong
winds will return to the central Caribbean in the wake of the
tropical waves. The first wave is currently along 69W/70W
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 16N,
including the Mona Passage and the eastern section of the
Dominican Republic. This wave will move across the central
Caribbean tonight through Wed night, followed by fresh to strong
east to southeast winds mainly S of 15N. Another tropical wave,
currently over the Tropical N Atlantic, will move across the
eastern Caribbean beginning on Wed afternoon and through Thu
night, and then across the central Caribbean Fri through Sat and
over the eastern part of the western Caribbean Sat night.
It is expected to be attendant by similar wind and weather
conditions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 37W and 48W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, with a second upper level trough,
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N between 56W and 66W. A
surface trough extends from 29N45W, to a 1016 mb low pressure
center that is near 26N43W, curving to 22N46W. One surface
trough is along 57W/58W from 25N to 29N. A second surface trough
is along 69W/70W from 22N to 30N. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 23N northward between 40W and 68W.

Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 28N northward from 68W westward. Remnant instability from
an earlier stationary front, and a surface trough from 32N71W to
31N72W, are in the area of the precipitation.

A weak ridge will remain in the northern Gulf of Mexico through
the next few days. It will provide for generally a gentle to
moderate wind flow and relatively low seas across the area.
Surface troughs will develop each afternoon in the Yucatan
Peninsula, and generate fresh to locally strong winds during the
overnight hours as they move westward into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans nearly the entire area
of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level SW wind flow is in the far NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, at the periphery of upper level
Gulf of Mexico cyclonic wind flow. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are in the Gulf of Honduras, and elsewhere in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from the Windward Passage
westward.

A pair of tropical waves crossing the Caribbean will lower wind
speeds over the basin until Thu night, then fresh to strong
winds will return to the central Caribbean in the wake of the
tropical waves. The first wave is currently along 69W/70W
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 16N,
including the Mona Passage and the eastern section of the
Dominican Republic. This wave will move across the central
Caribbean tonight through Wed night, followed by fresh to strong
east to southeast winds mainly S of 15N. Another tropical wave,
currently over the Tropical N Atlantic, will move across the
eastern Caribbean beginning on Wed afternoon and through Thu
night, and then across the central Caribbean Fri through Sat and
over the eastern part of the western Caribbean Sat night.
It is expected to be attendant by similar wind and weather
conditions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 47W/48W from 22N to 31N. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N
to 32N between 43W and 52W.

A surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center that
is near 36N69W to 31N70W. A second surface trough is along the
Florida east coast, along 78W/79W from 27N and the NW Bahamas to
32N. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
25N northward from 54W westward.

A tropical wave will bring gusty winds and strong east to
southeast winds, and rainshowers and thunderstorms, to the SE
part of the area through Wed. The wave will pass near Hispaniola
into the Turks and Caicos Islands during Wed through Thu,
accompanied by fresh to strong winds as well as showers and
thunderstorms. This system will move across the Bahamas Thu
evening, then northward to just off the Florida east coast Fri
night through Sat night. Otherwise, moderate breezes will
generally prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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