[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING :  A tightening surface pressure gradient, between
low pressure in North Africa and high pressure near the Azores,
is leading to northerly gale-force winds off the coast of
Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, today, starting at 29/1200
UTC, according to the High Seas forecast from Meteo France. Gale
force winds are forecast to persist in Agadir into Tuesday. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 30/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of NORTH near
gale or gale in: AGADIR and TARFAYA. Please read the latest high
seas forecast from Meteo France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 04N-18N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
W of the wave axis from 07N-11N between 20W-26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 03N-18N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between
35W-43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-18N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 06N-10N between 43W-51W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 07N-21N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the
Leeward Islands from 15N-21N between 61W-68W. Scattered moderate
convection is over the Windward Islands and N Venezuela from
07N-12N between 60W-69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 10N22W to 09N39W to 07N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in
the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is inland over W Africa from 10N-15N between 11W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 29/2100 UTC, a 1018 mb high is centered over the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 29N91W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds
are going around the high. Elsewhere, 15 kt SE winds are over the
far W Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is inland over the
Florida Peninsula, Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, E Texas, and
Louisiana. Mostly fair weather is over much of the Gulf waters.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with
axis from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong
subsidence is over the Gulf.

The surface high will support gentle to moderate winds through
the end of this week. Surface troughs will develop each afternoon
over the Yucatan Peninsula and generate fresh to strong winds
during the overnight hours as they move W over the Bay of
Campeche, especially early in the week. Weak surface troughs will
also develop over the Florida Peninsula, then move W and bring
showers and thunderstorms to the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the
overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
eastern Caribbean tropical wave.

As of 29/2100 UTC, a 1006 mb low is centered over N Colombia near
09N74W. 10-20 kt winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Besides the convection
already mentioned, scattered moderate convection is over NW
Venezuela, N Colombia, and Panama. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is inland over NE Nicaragua.

In the upper levels, an upper level high is centered E of the
Lesser Antilles near 17N56W. A ridge axis extends W over the
Caribbean to NE Nicaragua near 14N84W. A good amount of subsidence
is over the Caribbean Sea.

A pair of tropical waves crossing the Caribbean will lower wind
speeds over the basin until Thu night, then fresh to strong winds
will return to the central Caribbean in the wake of the tropical
waves. The first wave will impact the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico tonight and Tuesday, bringing fresh to possibly strong winds
to the region as well as showers and thunderstorms. Another
tropical will quickly follow and could bring similar conditions to
Puerto Rico Wednesday and Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale is along the coast of Morocco. See above.

Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.

The tail end of a surface trough is over the W Atlantic from
31N71W to 28N75W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
trough. A 1016 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near
26N44W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the center.

Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the W Atlantic near 27N62W. Upper level diffluence W of the
center is enhancing showers. Another small upper level low is
centered over the central Atlantic near 31N45W. Scattered showers
are within 120 nm of this low.

Over the W Atlantic, the surface trough will gradually dissipate
by Wednesday. A tropical wave will bring gusty winds as well as
showers and thunderstorms to the Puerto Rico waters tonight and
Tuesday. The wave will pass N of Hispaniola into the Turks and
Caicos Islands Wed and Thu, accompanied by fresh to strong winds
as well as showers and thunderstorms. This system will enter the
Bahamas Fri then track N just off the E coast of Florida Fri night
and Sat. Otherwise, moderate breezes will generally prevail.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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