[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 03N-19N,
moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance
and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-09N between 31W-40W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W from 04N-20N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave axis to
include the Lesser Antilles.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over N
Colombia.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW
Caribbean and W Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over SW Honduras and El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 12N24W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to the coast of
South America near 06N58W. Aside from the convection and showers
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is inland over W Africa from 13N-18N
between 13W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1013 mb low is over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N92W. A cold
front extends SW from the low to Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. A
stationary front extends NE from the low to Daytona Beach Florida
near 29N81W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
front. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over S Florida,
the Straits of Florida, and Cuba, from 22N-26N between 80W-85W.
More widely scattered moderate convection is inland over the
Yucatan Peninsula and S Mexico. This convection is mostly due to
an upper level low centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected northwest of the front
through Thu. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds will prevail ahead of
the front, briefly increasing to strong by late Thu. A surface
trough will develop over NW Gulf on Thu, before moving inland Fri
morning. Otherwise, each night a surface trough will form and
move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche
accompanied with fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin, and another is
approaching. Refer to the section above for details.

A small upper level low is centered N of N Colombia near 13N75W
enhancing scattered showers. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Costa Rica and Panama, due to the eastern
extent of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with an area of
strong trades in the Central Caribbean between 72W-76W.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend,
pulsing to near gale force at night along the coast of Colombia
and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will expand northward
towards Hispaniola adjacent waters and the Windward Passage on
Thu as high pressure strengthens and a tropical wave moves across
the central basin. Winds in the northern-central basin will
diminish on Sat as the wave moves over the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N78W and
extends SW to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the
Bahamas. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
34N54W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the the W Atlantic near 26N72W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 25N-32N between 65W-73W.

The W Atlantic front will dissipate on Thu. The pressure gradient
between the frontal boundary and high pressure to the east will
support moderate to fresh S to SW winds N of 27N through Thu.
Gentle to moderate SE winds will dominate the remainder of the W
Atlantic, except N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward Passage where fresh to strong winds will pulse at night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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