[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161014 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
554 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Corrected to add Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area will
support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean
through the forecast period, with winds briefly increase to gale
force NW of the Coast of Colombia Wed night due to low pressure
over northern Colombia deepening. Seas will build to 8-14 ft as
a result of these winds. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 17W from 17N southward,
moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring inland and along the coast of Guinea-
Bissau, Guinea, and Sierra Leone.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from
20N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted from 07N-11N between 40W-44W.

Another tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic, with
axis along 53W from 21N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. At
this time, scattered showers are noted along the wave axis and
near the ITCZ.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W from
20N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 12N-18N between 71W-76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 12N16W
to 07N27W. The ITCZ is from 07N27W to 09N39W, resumes W of the
tropical wave near 08N44W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barry outer bands of showers extend south
reaching the NW Gulf waters. This activity is mostly north of 26N
and west of 90W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 29N74W in the
western Atlantic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed
over the FL Peninsula and have moved offshore into the eastern
Gulf. Scatterometer data shows mostly gentle winds across the
northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, moderate winds prevail across the
central Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche associated with the
diurnal trough currently developing inland over the Yucatan
Peninsula.

A high pressure ridge will reside near the northern Gulf coast
through Sat night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally
prevail across the basin, except that winds will be fresh to
strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and
overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
developing Gale Warning NW of the Coast of Colombia.

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
wave traversing and approaching the Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection associated with the tropical wave
along 90W is enhancing convection across the Gulf of Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, with convection
reaching the adjacent waters south of 20N and west of 83W.
Scattered moderate strong convection is noted along the Pacific
monsoon trough crossing from Colombia to and Costa Rica. Also,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are present along the southern
coast of Cuba extending from north of 19N between 76W-82W.
Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds across most
of the Caribbean, light winds in the SW basin, and gentle winds
in the NW basin.

As mentioned above, high pressure N of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through
the forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
will affect the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Thu night. A
tropical wave near 75W will cross the western Caribbean Wed and
Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will
accompany this wave in the Caribbean. The next tropical wave
will approach the Windward Islands Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

A surface trough enters the western Atlantic waters from 30N77W
to 29N77W with scattered showers in the vicinity. To the east, a
persistent 1019 mb low is centered near 29N67W with scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity. Surface ridging
prevails across the rest of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high
near 33N38W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh north to
northeast winds are seen along the west coast of Africa, north of
23N and east of 27W.

A trough between the Bahamas and Florida will move across the FL
Peninsula later today. High pressure dominating the basin will
maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bahamas. The
high will be strong enough to generate fresh to strong trades N of
Hispaniola through Fri night, primarily during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres/JLewitsky
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