[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
737 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the West African coast with an
axis along 15W from 18N southward, moving west at about 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring inland, within 200 nm
west of the wave axis between 8N-12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W from
18N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave axis.

Another tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic, with
axis along 49W from 13N-25N, moving west at 10-15 kt. At this
time, scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 71W from
18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted mostly on the west side of the wave from 14N-
18N between 69W-71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 18N16W
to 11N31W. The ITCZ is from 08N43W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Barry is centered over northwest Arkansas,
with outer bands of convection still reaching the NW Gulf waters.
This activity is mostly north of 27N and west of 90W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 29N85W. Scatterometer data shows
mostly gentle winds across the Gulf, while moderate winds prevail
in the Bay of Campeche, associated with the diurnal trough
currently developing inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Remnant winds and seas associated with Barry will diminish over
the northern Gulf this evening. High pressure ridge will reside
near the northern Gulf coast through the weekend. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds will continue across the basin, and fresh
to strong winds to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the
evening and overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
wave traversing and approaching the Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection associated with the tropical wave
along 88W is enhancing convection across Nicaragua and Honduras,
with some convection reaching the adjacent waters south of 18N
and west of 83W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade
winds across most of the Caribbean, light winds in the SW basin,
and gentle winds in the NW basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will be over the Gulf of
Honduras through Thursday night. A tropical wave near 72W will
reach the central Caribbean Tuesday and Tuesday night, then the
western Caribbean through the end of the week. A surge of fresh to
strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave in the
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

A surface trough enters the western Atlantic waters from 31N76W
to 29N78W with scattered showers. To the east, a persistent 1021
mb low is centered near 29N67W with scattered showers also. A
surface trough is analyzed over the central Atlantic, extending
from 28N53W to 24N55W. Surface ridging prevails across the rest
of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 33N37W.
Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh northerly winds are
seen along the west coast of Africa, north of 17N and east of
27W.

High pressure dominating the basin will maintain
gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bahamas. The high will
be strong enough to generate fresh to strong trades N of
Hispaniola through Fri night, primarily during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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