[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141809
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
208 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Barry at 14/1500 UTC is inland near
31.8N 93.4W, or about 50 mi SSE of Shreveport, Louisiana. Barry is
moving toward the N at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt
gusting to 45 kt, and minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The
heaviest convection is away from the center. Scattered moderate
convection is over Mississippi and SE Louisiana from 28N-35N
between 88W-90W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over
the NW Gulf of Mexico from 25N-29N between 92W-97W. Barry is
expected to weaken as the center moves farther inland, and is
forecast to transition to a tropical depression later
today. Please see www.hurricanes.gov for the latest public
advisory and forecast advisory on Barry.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 03N-16N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave
axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 03N-22N,
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N
between 51W-59W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 180 nm of
the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 04N-18N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-19N between
68W-74W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from 02N-21N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the SW Caribbean and Panama S of 13N. Scattered showers are
over the NW Caribbean N of 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 12N17W to 08N30W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to
09N53W, and continues W of a tropical wave from 10N57W to the
coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered showers
are within 180 nm of the axis between 17W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the NW Gulf of
Mexico from 25N-29N between 92W-97W due to T.S. Barry. Scattered
moderate convection is over the north central Gulf, N of 28N
between 88W-90W, also due to T.S. Barry. 30-35 kt winds are still
being reported along the SW Louisiana coast. A 1022 mb high is
centered over N Florida near 30N82W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate
convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-20N between 94W-
96W.

Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression today. Barry will move to 34.2N 93.5W Mon morning, and
move to 35.7N 93.1W Mon evening, then become a remnant low and
move to 37.4N 91.9W Tue morning, before dissipating Wed morning.
Winds and seas will diminish and subside across the basin through
early Mon in the wake of Barry and as high pres ridging builds
westward across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. Additional
scattered moderate convection are over the Windward Islands S of
15N. Isolated moderate convection is also over E Cuba, and W Cuba.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near
the Cayman Islands enhancing convection.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the S central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Winds will be fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of
Honduras. A tropical wave near 83W will cross into Central America
by early Mon. Another tropical wave along 72W will reach the
central Caribbean by early Mon, then reach the western Caribbean
by Tue night. The next tropical wave will reach the eastern
Caribbean Mon, and the central Caribbean Wed into Thu. A surge of
fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N74W. A
surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N65W to 23N73W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. The tail end of
a stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to
27N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Another
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N46W to 24N48W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough. A 1027 mb high
is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N32W.

The W Atlantic trough will move W across the waters S of 28N
through early Tue when it will reach the Florida Peninsula.
Another trough will move W of 65W Wed, weakening as it approaches
the Bahamas through Thu. Otherwise, high pres will dominate the
region through the next several days, generally bringing gentle to
moderate breezes, except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong
trades will pulse during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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