[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Barry is centered in the north central Gulf of
Mexico near 28.2N 90.4W, with an estimated central pressure of
998 mb, moving WNW at 4 kt. This position is about 100 nm SSE of
Morgan City, Louisiana. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas of 15-20 ft are expected within 220
nm in the eastern semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection prevails across most of the northern half of the
Gulf basin mainly north of 24N and west of 86W. See the latest
Public Advisories for Barry via the WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for Barry are
available under the WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2. See www.hurricanes.gov for more details also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis
extending along 17W from 06N-16N, moving west at around 10 kt.
This position is based on model guidance, TPW imagery, and surface
observations. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's
environment mainly south of 10N between 17W-22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 37W from
17N to a 1009 mb low near 09N37W to 03N37W, moving west at 15-20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-12N between
35W- 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 15N56W to
04N60W, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is well depicted in
scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection prevails across
the northern portion of the wave north of 10N. This activity will
affect the Windward Islands this afternoon/evening.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W south of 17N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. This position is depicted in 700 mb
streamline analysis. At this time, no significant convection is
present within this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W south of 16N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the
waves environment where the wave meets the monsoon trough
affecting Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal Africa near 18N16W to
09N34W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 08N41W to
06N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section above, no significant activity is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
T.S. Barry.

Scattered showers continue off the coast of Florida east of 85W.
Moderate to strong winds prevail across most of the basin outside
of T.S. Barry except over the Bay of Campeche, where light to
gentle variable winds are noted in scatterometer data.

Tropical Storm Barry will move to 28.6N 90.9W this evening,
strengthen to a hurricane near 29.4N 91.5W Sat morning, move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.5N 92.0W Sat
evening, move farther inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 31.8N 92.4W Sun morning, and 33.0N 92.4W Mon morning. Barry
will become a remnant low as it moves to Arkansas early Tue. Winds
and seas diminish across the basin Sun into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

Scattered low-topped showers are moving across the eastern
Windward Islands ahead of the next tropical wave. Scattered
moderate convection is seen in the far southwest Caribbean,
enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough and tropical wave,
S of 12N between 76W-84W. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the
central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades prevail across
the rest of the basin.

Similar conditions will prevail through the next few days. Winds
will be fresh to occasionally strong over the Gulf of Honduras.
The tropical wave near 84W will exit the western Caribbean by
Sat. The tropical wave near 67W will reach the central Caribbean
Sat and enter the western Caribbean late Sun. A third tropical
wave near 58W will enter the eastern Caribbean tonight and reach
the central Caribbean Sun, then reach the western Caribbean Tue
enhancing convection across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is noted across the west Atlantic
west of 77W. A surface trough extends from 29N79W to 24N78W. To
the east, a 1016 mb surface low is centered near 30N55W, with cold
front extending from it to 26N60W. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed from 28N53W to 24N59W. Scattered showers prevail along
these features. Surface ridging, anchored by a 1026 mb high near
27N69W, is seen across the rest of the basin.

Meanwhile, a cold front enters the forecast
waters near 31N52W to 27N59W to 29N64W. The tail-end of the
boundary then stalls from 29N64W to 31N67W. A pre- frontal trough
is analyzed from 27N56W to 24N62W. Showers with embedded
thunderstorms are along and within 50 nm of these boundaries
between 50W-65W. Another surface trough is seen in the central
Atlantic from 27N44W to 22N48W with no significant convection
associated with it. Surface ridging, anchored by a 1020 mb high
near 38N26W, prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The surface trough over the west Atlantic will move westward
across the waters Sat through early Tue when it will reach the
Florida Peninsula. High pressure will dominate the region through
early next week, generally bringing gentle to moderate breezes,
except N of Hispaniola where fresh to strong trades will pulse
during the evening hours. The low/front over the central Atlantic
will weaken and dissipate within the next couple of days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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