[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is a 1007 mb low centered near
27.5N 88.2W as of 11/0900 UTC, or about 170 nm SE of New Orleans,
LA moving W at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 26 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 200 nm W and SW of
the low center. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend out to
300 nm in the NE/SE quad.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, becoming
a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today and Friday.
Expect this system to move westward through Thursday, turning to
north toward the Louisiana coast by Friday. Peak seas are
forecast to be over 20 ft. For more information on this
developing tropical cyclone, including information on the
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches that are currently in effect for
portions of the United States, please visit hurricanes.gov to see
the latest NHC public and forecast advisory products.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 13N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. There is a 1012 mb low along this wave
near 08N30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near
this feature from 04N-11N between 30W-34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 19N southward,
moving W around 10 kt. This wave is in dry Saharan air and no
significant convection associated with it at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 13N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. A tropical wave to the east of the one along
58W is along an axis of 51W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Satellite
imagery shows a low cloud swirl along the tropical wave along 51W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N- 13N between 51W-
59W. The wave will bring enhanced rainfall to the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands beginning early Friday. It will reach the
central Caribbean by late Saturday and Central America by early
Monday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 17N southward,
moving W around 15-20 kt. No significant deep convective
precipitation is seen over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal/The
Gambia near 13N17W to 09N25W to 06N39W. The ITCZ begins near
06N39W and continues to 09N51W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are seen south of the monsoon trough from 06N-
11N between the coast of Africa and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for more details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Weak ridging is seen across the western Gulf with fair weather
prevailing across this area. Winds are generally light to gentle
with moderate to fresh winds near Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from central Cuba to northeastern
Nicaragua. This feature, along with the tropical wave over the
central Caribbean are enhancing scattered moderate convection
near Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands, from 19N- 23N between
76W-84W. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue south of 16N between 76W- 84W. There is
also a cluster of isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras.
Drier air and fair weather covers the eastern Caribbean east of
72W due to Saharan air moving westward through the Caribbean.
However, scattered low-topped showers are seen across the eastern
Greater Antilles and throughout the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to
fresh trades are seen in the rest of the central Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are seen
across the rest of the basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
tropical wave passing Jamaica will exit the western Caribbean
Friday. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean
late today, cross the central Caribbean through Sunday and into
the western Caribbean Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered thunderstorms across the western Atlantic are seen from
22N-31N between 73W-80W due to an upper-level trough is extending
from central Cuba to the Bahamas and along with influence from
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a
front north of the forecast waters along with a pre-frontal trough
from 30N57W to 26N61W. These features are bringing convection
into the area from 25N- 31N between 50W- 63W. Surface ridging
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high near
37N28W.

High pressure will dominate into the weekend, generally bringing
gentle to moderate breezes, except north of Hispaniola where fresh
to strong trades will pulse during the evenings.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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