[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad low pressure area located over the far northeastern
Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread but disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce
storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds across
portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Upper Texas coasts.
In addition, this disturbance has the potential to produce very
heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle. For more information, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center. Please also refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W from 15N southward,
moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen near this feature from 05N-11N between 23W-26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 16N southward,
moving W around 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection is seen
at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 13N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen within 150 nm of the wave axis from 07N-11N. Enhanced
showers and thunderstorms are likely for the Lesser Antilles and
eastern Caribbean Friday into Saturday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 05N-17N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the
northern portion of this wave axis along the coast of the
Dominican Republic, from 16N-19N between 69W-71W. There are also
isolated thunderstorms seen within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 05N-17N, moving W
around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along
the wave from 10N-18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 13N17W to 08N24W to 08N39W. The ITCZ begins near 09N40W to
08N48W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 08N49W to the
coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Aside from the convection
mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between
26W-35W. Showers are also seen within 90 nm north of the ITCZ
between 35W- 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for more details on the
low expected to move into the Gulf this week.

A mid-low level low and trough are confined to the northeast Gulf
bringing enhanced convection across the area. The broad area of
low pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle with a 1011 mb
low analyzed near 29N85W with a trough extending from 30N86W to
26N86W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 25N-30N
between 83W- 91W. The strongest area of convection is coming off
the central Louisiana coast N of 28N between 83W-92W. Weak
surface ridging prevails in the western Gulf. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin.

Developing low pressure along the western Florida Panhandle may
intensify into a tropical cyclone as it moves westward across the
north central Gulf through Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical
waves currently traversing the Caribbean.

Upper-level low centered over the northern Caribbean extending
into the central basin, along with a deep plume of moisture, is
enhancing scattered moderate convection near Cuba and Jamaica.
This convection is seen from 16N-21N between 78W- 82W. Scattered
moderate convection is also seen near the Dominican Republic from
17N-21N between 75W-82W. Showers are also seen moving across
Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection continues across the
SW Caribbean off the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua,
enhanced by the monsoon trough, south of 13N between 77W-84W.
Moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with moderate
trades in the eastern basin, and light to gentle trades across the
rest of the area.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the entire
period. A tropical wave from Panama to Cuba will weaken as it
moves west of the area late today. Another tropical wave south of
Hispaniola will also weaken as it moves into the western Caribbean
through late week. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern
Caribbean late Thursday into early Friday and move through the
central Caribbean Saturday and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad area of low pressure in the NE Gulf along with a
frontal boundary off the U.S. East coast is contributing
scattered thunderstorms in the western Atlantic, mostly north of
27N and west of 74W. Additionally, the upper- level low
contributing to convection over the Caribbean is also giving way
to scattered moderate convection across the Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos, from 20N- 24N between 69W- 76W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue across the Atlantic from 27N- 26N between
60W-64W likely due to enhanced moisture in the area as seen on
TPW. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored
by a 1022 mb high near 27N57W.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will persist through
today over the offshore waters off northeast Florida due to
developing low pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere, high pressure dominating the region will support gentle
to moderate breezes elsewhere, except north of Hispaniola where
fresh to strong trades will pulse during the evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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