[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb SW Georgia low pressure
center to a second 1012 mb low pressure center that is near
28N84W in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the NE of the
line that runs from SE Louisiana near 91W to NW Cuba along 84W.
The low pressure center is forecast to move toward the S and SW,
and emerge into the NE Gulf of Mexico later today. The
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, once the system is in the Gulf of
Mexico. It is likely for a tropical depression to develop by
late Wednesday or Thursday, with the system moving westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This system has the
potential to produce heavy rainfall in parts of the northern and
eastern Gulf of Mexico coast of the U.S.A. later this week.
Please, read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your
local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more details. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the
Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 17N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 09N between 17W and 26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 15N
southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 16N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 03N to 12N between 38W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 16N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 18N southward between 58W and 65W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W from 20N
southward, from the Windward Passage to Colombia. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 15N to 20N between the Windward
Passage and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W, to 08N23W and 09N30W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N30W to 08N37W 09N43W, and from 07N46W to 08N56W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 09N southward between 53W
and 60W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 13N
southward from 60W eastward, not counting any precipitation that
is related to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from
21N northward from 92W westward. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is in south Texas. An upper level ridge
passes through SE Louisiana, into the east central Gulf of
Mexico, eventually leading into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, near the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak, except for the
NE corner of the area, where broad low pressure is developing.

Weak high pressure will dominate the western Gulf of Mexico
until the middle of the week. A developing area of low pressure,
that is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, will intensify
slowly, through Saturday. It is possible that the development
may lead to a tropical cyclone, as the system drifts westward
in the N central and NW Gulf of Mexico through late Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the 22N74W cyclonic
circulation center, across Haiti, to 15N73W, to 12N78W, and then
toward the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 18N
to Cuba between 80W and 85W.

A surface trough extends from 21N68W in the Atlantic Ocean,
toward the eastern coast of the Dominican Republic, to 16N69W in
the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 14N to 20N between 66W and 70W, reaching
Puerto Rico and the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia, and
beyond 85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 13N southward
from 70W westward. Some of the clouds and precipitation that are
between 70W and 77W were overland during the late night and
early morning hours, and now are moving northward a bit.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea during the
entire period. A tropical wave, that is to the S of the Windward
Passage, will weaken as it transits the western Caribbean Sea
through Thursday. A second tropical wave will move across the
eastern Caribbean Sea today, into the central Caribbean Sea on
Wednesday, and exit the western Caribbean Sea by Friday or
Saturday. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean
Sea on Thursday, and move through the central Caribbean Sea
on Friday and Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 35N70W, to the coast of South
Carolina near 33N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 30N northward from 68W westward.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N41W cyclonic circulation
center, to 29N46W 29N53W 27N57W 25N68W, to a 22N74W cyclonic
circulation center, to 24N80W in the Straits of Florida. A
dissipating cold front passes through 32N32W to 31N35W. A
dissipating stationary front continues from 31N35W to 29N42W
29N45W and 26N48W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 240
nm to the north of the line that passes through 32N26W 29N40W
26N50W 23N65W 23N80W.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly wind flow will persist
through early Wednesday, in the offshore waters that are to the
NE of Florida. This is due to a developing area of low pressure
that is in the NE Gulf of Mexico. High pressure that is covering
the area will support gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. An
exception will be for the area that is to the north of
Hispaniola, where fresh to strong trade winds will pulse at
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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