[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
136 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis over West Africa
along 13/14W from 04N-17N. Numerous moderate with embedded
isolated strong convection is seen from 04N-12N between 11W-22W.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 26/27W from 17N
southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers are
seen from 05N-10N between 22W-28W.

A tropical wave is along 37W from 14N southward, moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave is along the back edge of a large area of African
dust, and no significant convection currently accompanies the
wave. In a few days, convection is likely to increase along the
wave. The wave will likely bring gusty showers to the Windward
Islands on Friday, and these conditions will continue westward
over the eastern Caribbean into Saturday.

A tropical wave is along 55W from 15N southward, moving W around
20 kt. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 08N-12N between
52W-61W. An increase in shower activity can be expected for the
Windward Islands tonight into Tuesday.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 06N-20N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. The environment is fairly dry, and only isolated
showers are noted along portions of the wave axis, with scattered
showers now moving through the Virgin Islands.

A tropical wave extends along 87W, from 18N in the western Gulf of
Honduras southward into the East Pacific. Movement is W at 15-20
kt. Isolated showers are over the western Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W to 09N20W to 09N27W to 06N32W. The ITCZ begins near
06N32W to 06N35W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N39W
to 06N53W. No significant convection is seen, except for the
convection described above in the Tropical Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the NE Gulf of Mexico from the
Florida Big Bend to 26N84W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen
from 25N-29N, east of 85W. The remainder of the Gulf is under
weak surface ridging with gentle winds.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form on Wednesday in
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical depression is likely
to form by the end of the week while the low moves slowly westward
over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds to near gale force are
expected in the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week along
with squally weather and high seas, regardless of tropical cyclone
formation. If the system were to become a tropical storm, then
higher winds and seas would occur. Heavy rainfall is possible
along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later
this week. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress
of this system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently traversing the Caribbean. Broad upper-
level troughing covers much of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are seen in the northern Caribbean
from Jamaica to near Cuba. Much of the west-central Caribbean is
free of any significant shower activity due to mid-level ridging
over the area. The East Pacific monsoon trough is along 10N in the
far SW Caribbean. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen south of
12N between 75W-84W. The latest ASCAT pass shows that moderate to
fresh trades cover much of the basin.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean for the entire period. A
tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Tue with
strong winds affecting mainly the Windward Islands. Showers and
tstorms with this wave will affect the SE basin through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad low-level troughing in the SE U.S.A. is drawing moisture
toward Florida and the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 23N-29N between 76W-79W, including the NW Bahamas. A
stationary front extends from 31N38W to 27N51W. Isolated showers
are seen along the front.

Moderate to fresh southerly flow will persist through Tue off
northeast Florida due to a deepening trough over Georgia and high
pressure to the east. The high pressure will prevail by mid week
across the region, supporting gentle to moderate breezes through
the remainder of the entire period north of 22N. Farther south,
fresh trade winds will persist north of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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