[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
732 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over west Africa is along 16W south of 15N,
moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N-15N between 13W-17W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has been added with an axis along 24W
south of 11N moving west around 10 kt. A 1012 mb low is along
this wave near 07N24W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms is seen
from 05N- 10N between 23W-25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W south of
14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 06N-12N between 40W-45W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 54W
south of 17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 73W/74W,
moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
over Hispaniola. The wave will produce strong trade winds today
and tonight along and east of the wave axis as it passes across
the forecast area, before reaching Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N21W to 06N33W. The ITCZ begins near 06N33W to
08N42W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 08N43W to
08N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered moderate convection is noted along and
south of the monsoon trough from 04N-08N between 25W-31W.
Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the ITCZ from
06N-12N between 40W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level ridge continues to be centered over the NW Gulf with
a 1020 mb high analyzed over 29N94W. Two surface troughs are seen
in the eastern Gulf, one analyzed from 30N85W to 28N87W and from
28N84W to 24N86W. A mid-low level trough is over the NE
Gulf/Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection is seen
across the eastern half of the Gulf, from 24N-30N between 82W-92W.
Scattered thunderstorms are also moving off the Yucatan into the
Bay of Campeche south of 21N and east of 92W. Light to gentle
winds are seen across the Gulf.

A weak surface ridge will dominate the basin the entire period.
An area of low pressure in the SE CONUS supports scattered showers
and thunderstorms today. Another low will develop in the NE
waters on Thursday, increasing the winds to fresh to strong.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

Upper-level cyclonic flow prevails over the NW Caribbean and
northern portions of Central America. Upper-level ridging
covers the remainder of the Caribbean. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, thunderstorms are seen in the
Gulf of Honduras from 16N-19N between 85W-87W. Thunderstorms over
Cuba are also moving into adjacent waters. ASCAT data depicts
fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail across the central
Caribbean through Thursday, pulsing to near gale force during the
overnight hours off of Colombia through Sunday. A new tropical
wave will enter the E Caribbean Sunday and move to the central
basin Monday night. A second wave will enter the E Caribbean
Monday night into Tuesday with showers and strong winds
associated with it.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave in the Atlantic basin.

A low to mid level trough near northern Florida is drawing
moisture toward the area. Scattered moderate convection remains
mostly over Florida but some activity within 60 nm of the coast
from 26N-31N. Isolated thunderstorm are also seen in the central
Bahamas. A 1021 mb low is seen in the Atlantic near 28N64W with a
trough along it from 30N62W to 27N67W with no significant
convection associated with it. A cold front enters the waters near
31N46W to 30N57W with showers along the boundary. Moderate to
fresh southwesterly winds are seen ahead of the front. A pre-
frontal trough is seen from 30N45W to 28N49W. Otherwise surface
ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb
high near 31N33W and a 1022 mb high near 28N60W.

High pressure will dominate the region the entire period. Low
pressure developing in the SE CONUS on Sunday will meander in
this region supporting moderate to fresh southerlies in the NW
waters. Fresh to strong winds are expected off Hispaniola late
tonight in the wake of an active tropical wave moving through the
central Caribbean. Winds will resume N of Hispaniola on Tuesday
as a new tropical wave move into the central Caribbean.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net