[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave, currently over western Africa, has been
introduced to the analysis, with axis along 10W from 05N-13N. At
this time, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 10N
between 10W-13W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 36W and south of 12N,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N-10N
between 36W-41W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 46W and south of 15N,
moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this feature at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70/71W and
southward of 19N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 200 nm on either side of the wave's axis,
particularly north of 17N affecting Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage, and
Dominican Republic. The wave will continue to enhance shower
activity for the ABC Islands and Hispaniola through early
Saturday. The wave will also strengthen the trade winds across
most of the Caribbean through Saturday as it passes across the
forecast area, before reaching Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 07N28W. The ITCZ begins near 07N28W to 07N36W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 07N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ
resumes again west of another tropical wave from 08N47W to 05N54W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon
trough from 05N-10N between 20W-25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep-layered ridging covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb
surface high is near 29N89W. A surface trough is analyzed from
29N85W to 25N86W. Light to gentle easterly winds prevail across
the basin. The eastern Gulf has scattered showers prevailing,
particularly east of the surface trough.

High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A weak
frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf by late
Monday, then drift SE and linger through Wednesday, where broad
low pressure may develop.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean.

Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the
western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades prevail across
the central and eastern Caribbean, with strong winds north of
Colombia.

Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail will across the central
Caribbean through the weekend, pulsing to near gale force during
the overnight hours off of Colombia. The active tropical wave
along 70W will continue moving across the central Caribbean
today, then reach Central America on Sunday. The next significant
tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles by Monday night and
reach 70W Tuesday evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical
waves in the Atlantic.

A surface trough extends from 30N75W to 29N79W with scattered
showers. To the east, a weak 1021 mb low is centered near 30N64W,
with surface trough extending from the low to 29N68W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 32N37W.

High pressure across the central Atlantic will build modestly
westward and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend.
Fresh to strong winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles
today as an active tropical wave moves through the central
Caribbean, and then again Tuesday through Wednesday associated
with the next significant tropical wave.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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