[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 17N southward.
15N37W 09N36W 04N35W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 09N to 16N between 30W and 40W. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are
with the ITCZ from 04N to 07N between 30W and 40W.

A well defined Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from
19N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are from 20N southward between 60W and 70W. The forecast is for
the wave to impact Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands
today, bringing enhanced rainshowers and thunderstorms with
gusty winds. It is likely that moisture that is associated with
this wave may reach Hispaniola late tonight into Saturday. This
wave also is forecast to strengthen the trade winds across most
of the basin through Saturday, as it passes across the forecast
area, and then reach Central America on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 10N21W to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to
04N50W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 08N to
13N between 12W and 20W, in the coastal plains and coastal
waters of Africa. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 11N between 10W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf
of Mexico. The pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is broad
and flat.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 90W
eastward.

High pressure will dominate the region through the weekend, with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the Gulf. A weak
frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf late
Monday. The front will drift SE and linger through Tuesday,
where broad low pressure may develop.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the
north and northwest of the line that runs from 12N in Nicaragua
to eastern sections of Hispaniola. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N northward
from the Windward Passage to the Yucatan Peninsula. This area
mainly consists of the Windward Passage, and the coastal waters
of Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central
parts of the Caribbean Sea through the weekend, pulsing to near
gale force off the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.
An active tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean
Sea. This tropical wave will reach the central Caribbean Sea
tonight, and then reach Central America on Sunday. Fresh trade
winds, and sea heights reaching around 8 feet, will linger
across the tropical N Atlantic Ocean today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front reaches 32N60W. A surface trough
continues from 32N60W to a 1019 mb low pressure center that is
near 30N64W. The trough continues from 30N64W to 28N70W.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the NW of
the line that passes through 32N50W 30N65W, to 28N73W, to the
coast of Cuba near 22N78W.

High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will build westward
and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds are expected N of the Greater Antilles on Friday
and Saturday, as an active tropical wave moves through the
central Caribbean Sea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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