[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis along 35W south of 17N, moving W
around 10-15 kt. A cluster of moderate convection is observed
behind the wave axis, and where the wave meets the monsoon trough.
This convective activity covers from 05N-13N between 33W-36W. Some
of the usual summertime African dust surrounds the wave based on
GOES-R RGB Geocolor imagery and the Saharan Air Layer product from
CIMSS.

A well defined tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles
along an axis of 60W, south of 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The TPW
product shows a large area of moisture just behind this wave.
Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave
axis from 10N-16N between 59W- 63W. This activity is forecast to
impact the Lesser Antilles the rest of today, and Puerto Rico and
the UK/US Virgin Islands on Fri, bringing enhanced showers and
thunderstorms with gusty winds. Moisture associated with this wave
will likely reach Hispaniola late Fri into Sat. In addition, this
wave is forecast to strengthen the trades across most of the
basin through Sat as it passes across the forecast area, then
reach Central America Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N26W to 06N39W. The ITCZ continues from 06N39W to the
border of Brazil and French Guiana near 04N52W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is seen within about 120 nm S of the monsoon trough
between 17W- 33W. Isolated showers are seen along the ITCZ between
40W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep-layered ridge prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico. A
surface high of 1018 mb is analyzed close to the mouth of the
Mississippi River near 28N89W. Under the influence of this
system, mainly light to gentle winds prevail, with gentle to
moderate southeasterly winds in the western basin. A surface
trough extends from near Tampa Bay, FL across the SE Gulf into
western Cuba from 28N83W to 23N84W. Scattered moderate convection
was seen along this trough off the coast of Tampa Bay but this
activity has since dissipated. Numerous strong convection
continues over Florida, mostly on land--although a cluster of
thunderstorms in SW Florida is beginning to move over adjacent
waters. Otherwise, tranquil weather prevails.

Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the weekend
and produce gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the
Gulf. A weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf
late Monday, then drift SE and linger through Tuesday, where
broad low pressure may develop.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles. Please see the
Tropical Waves section for more details.

Upper level cyclonic wind continues over the western Caribbean.
This is helping give way to scattered moderate convection off of
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba. Isolated thunderstorms can
be seen across the Greater Antilles, although convection is
suppressed across the eastern half of the Greater Antilles due to
SAL moving into the area. Scattered moderate convection is also
seen over the Lesser Antilles--see the tropical waves discussion
for more detail. Otherwise, fresh to strong trades are seen in the
south- central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate trades are seen in the rest of the Caribbean, with the
exception of the NW basin which has light winds.

Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail across south central portions
of the Caribbean this evening, as an active tropical wave is
moving across the Lesser Antilles. Winds will strengthen across
most of the basin through late Sunday as this tropical wave
reaches along 75W Saturday morning, then reaches Central America
Sunday. Fresh to strong trades and seas to around 8 ft will
linger across the tropical N Atlc waters tonight through Friday
behind the tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low is analyzed in the western Caribbean near 29N65W with a
surface trough extending along it from 31N61W to 28N68W. Isolated
showers are seen along the low, otherwise there is no significant
convection associated with it. Another surface trough is analyzed
from 30N72W to 27N73W, with scattered thunderstorms seen along
this trough. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the central
Bahamas. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin
from a 1027 mb high near 33N39W.

The trough with the low in the western Caribbean, from an old
frontal boundary, will drift NW and slowly dissipate through
Friday. High pressure across the central Atlantic will then build
westward and into the Bahamas and S Florida through the weekend.
Fresh to strong winds are expected N of the Greater Antilles
Friday and Saturday as an active tropical wave moves through the
central Caribbean.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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