[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 20N
southward. ITCZ-related precipitation is from 05N to 08N between
30W and 40w. The wave shows up well in model diagnostics and the
CIRA layered precipitable water images.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 18N
southward. The TPW images were showing a large area of enhanced
moisture with this wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 50W and 57W. This wave
is forecast to impact the eastern Caribbean Sea from Thursday
through Friday, bringing enhanced rainshowers with thunder and
gusty winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 09N19W and 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from
08N22W to 07N30W 05N44W and 06N52W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 08N13W to 07N24W to 07N30W. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 06N30W to 06N36W, and within 60 nm on either side
of 06N38W 06N43W, from 07N to 09N between 36W and 39W, and from
05N to 08N between 50W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Gulf
of Mexico. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 28N89W.

Earlier areas of precipitation have weakened and dissipated.
A lone area of scattered moderate rainshowers is from 27N to 28N
between 95W and 96W, about 50 nm off the middle Texas coast.

Weak high pressure will dominate the region through the upcoming
weekend, resulting in gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of
Mexico. A trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula during
the afternoon and move westward into the Bay of Campeche each
evening, bringing a brief period of fresh to locally strong
winds to the south central Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the
north and northwest of the line that runs from the coast of
central Nicaragua to Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the areas of the Windward Passage, and
the coastal waters of Cuba on the Caribbean Sea between 76W and
84W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the
Caribbean Sea, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean, from Dominica
near 15N to 20N between 57W and 64W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, to 08N79W,
across southern sections of Panama, beyond 09N85W in the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are off the coast of NE Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through early Thursday. A tropical wave will move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea next, and strengthen the trade
winds everywhere, except for the NW part of the basin, through
Saturday. This tropical wave will move across the tropical N
Atlantic Ocean waters tonight, enter the eastern Caribbean Sea
on Thursday, reach 70W on Friday morning, reach 80W late on
Saturday, then move into Central America on Sunday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 17N northward between 50W and 70W. An area of upper
level cyclonic wind flow is near 25N64W, surrounded by the other
individual areas of upper level anticyclonic wind flow. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N northward
between 50W and 70W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
also is from 74W westward.

A stationary front passes through 32N57W to 29N63W. The
stationary front is dissipating along 29N63W 27N67W 26N70W. A
surface trough continues from 26N70W to 25N72W to 23N72W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N
northward between 50W and 70W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
elsewhere from 20N northward between Africa and 53W.

The current stationary front will move northward, while
dissipating through Thursday. High pressure will build into the
northern waters from Thursday through Friday night, and persist
through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of
Hispaniola on Friday and Saturday, as a tropical wave moves
through the central Caribbean Sea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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